Boise State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsUSU
- Q4 8:09BOISKelsey Young 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–52
- Q4 13:31BOISTyler Rausa 41 Yd Field Goal 20–52
- Q3 0:22USUDevante Mays 1 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)17–52
- Q3 3:02BOISDevan Demas 3 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–45
- Q2 0:00USUMarwin Evans 90 Yd Interception Return (Brock Warren Kick)10–45
- Q2 1:05USUHunter Sharp 21 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)10–38
- Q2 1:25USUKent Myers 39 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)10–31
- Q2 3:12BOISKelsey Young 1 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)10–24
- Q2 14:29USULaJuan Hunt 4 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)3–24
- Q1 0:54USUHunter Sharp 10 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)3–17
- Q1 3:22USUJake Thompson 51 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 7:33USUWyatt Houston 2 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)3–7
- Q1 12:36BOISTyler Rausa 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassBrett Rypien 25/50, 299 YDS, 3 INT
- RushKelsey Young 20 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- RecThomas Sperbeck 6 REC, 156 YDS
- PassKent Myers 17/24, 157 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKent Myers 14 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLaJuan Hunt 2 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:54USU +19%
Hunter Sharp 10 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)
- Q1 7:33USU +17%
Wyatt Houston 2 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)
- Q2 14:29USU +15%
LaJuan Hunt 4 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)
- Q2 3:12BOIS +14%
Kelsey Young 1 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)
- Q2 1:25USU +13%
Kent Myers 39 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)
- Q1 3:22USU +9%
Jake Thompson 51 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Utah State?
Boise State 26, Utah State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 334 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 157 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 25/50 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 11-104 |
| 24:56 | Possession | 35:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:23 USU punt on 4th & 2 at USU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:09BOISKelsey Young 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–52
- Q4 13:31BOISTyler Rausa 41 Yd Field Goal 20–52
- Q3 0:22USUDevante Mays 1 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)17–52
- Q3 3:02BOISDevan Demas 3 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–45
- Q2 0:00USUMarwin Evans 90 Yd Interception Return (Brock Warren Kick)10–45
- Q2 1:05USUHunter Sharp 21 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)10–38
- Q2 1:25USUKent Myers 39 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)10–31
- Q2 3:12BOISKelsey Young 1 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)10–24
- Q2 14:29USULaJuan Hunt 4 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)3–24
- Q1 0:54USUHunter Sharp 10 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)3–17
- Q1 3:22USUJake Thompson 51 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 7:33USUWyatt Houston 2 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)3–7
- Q1 12:36BOISTyler Rausa 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1638, BOIS Elo 1925 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU +9.1 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #48 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #34 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Boise State leads 25–5 · Boise State has won 10 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.5 (#39) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#65) |
| +1 / -8 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →