Central Michigan vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsPUR
- Q4 3:44CMUThomas Rawls 16 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)38–17
- Q4 8:13PURDanny Anthrop 23 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Paul Griggs Kick)31–17
- Q4 13:34CMUBrian Eavey 23 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q3 7:03CMUBen McCord 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)28–10
- Q3 10:38PURPaul Griggs 42 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 7:48CMUThomas Rawls 2 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:51PURDanny Etling 4 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:29CMUAnthony Rice 65 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:30CMUBrandon Greer 57 Yd Interception Return (Brian Eavey Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCooper Rush 11/16, 172 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Rawls 31 CAR, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAnthony Rice 2 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDanny Etling 17/32, 126 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDanny Etling 10 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDolapo Macarthy 3 REC, 33 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:30CMU +17%
Brandon Greer 57 Yd Interception Return (Brian Eavey Kick)
- Q1 7:29CMU +14%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 65 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q2 7:48CMU +14%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q2 9:51PUR +14%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
- Q3 7:03CMU +9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q3 10:38PUR +5%
Paul Griggs 42 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Purdue?
Central Michigan 38, Purdue 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.
| CMU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 326 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 204 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 9-21 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 11/16 | Comp/Att | 24/49 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 7-69 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 29:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:34 CMU punt on 4th & 12 at PUR 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:44CMUThomas Rawls 16 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)38–17
- Q4 8:13PURDanny Anthrop 23 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Paul Griggs Kick)31–17
- Q4 13:34CMUBrian Eavey 23 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q3 7:03CMUBen McCord 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)28–10
- Q3 10:38PURPaul Griggs 42 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 7:48CMUThomas Rawls 2 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:51PURDanny Etling 4 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:29CMUAnthony Rice 65 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:30CMUBrandon Greer 57 Yd Interception Return (Brian Eavey Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1263, CMU Elo 1365 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +1.7 (47% to win) — 4.7 points clear of CMU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #87 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| CMU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →