Bethune-Cookman vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BETHTeam statsUCF
- Q4 0:00BETHKobe Stewart 8 Yd pass from Joel Morris 6–73
- Q4 14:56UCFRocco Marriott 1 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–73
- Q3 2:02UCFAgyeman Addae 39 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–66
- Q3 5:42UCFCaleb Rollerson 9 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Will Stone Kick)0–59
- Q3 9:10UCFLanden Chambers 27 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–52
- Q3 13:02UCFTaevion Swint 27 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–45
- Q2 1:50UCFLanden Chambers 2 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–38
- Q2 7:19UCFWill Stone 34 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 14:54UCFJonathan Bibbs 23 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:11UCFAlonza Barnett III 5 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–21
- Q1 10:42UCFJayden Williams 47 Yd Interception Return (Will Stone Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:02UCFDuke Watson 64 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BETH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.7 vs 3rd & 8.1
A comfortable UCF win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
Bethune-Cookman never had a foothold. UCF runs away from Bethune-Cookman, 73-6 at FBC Mortgage Stadium. UCF led from start to finish and never let Bethune-Cookman within striking distance. Landen Chambers ran six times for 56 yards and two scores.
- PassTyler Jefferson 4/10, 55 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Daniel 10 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecRickie Shaw II 4 REC, 40 YDS
- PassAlonza Barnett III 11/18, 158 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDuke Watson 7 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Derry 3 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 66 entering the 4th quarter. Across 60 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Bethune-Cookman vs. UCF?
Bethune-Cookman 6, UCF 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| BETH | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Total yards | 560 |
| 74 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 360 |
| 9 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 9.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-58 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 31:55 | Possession | 28:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:32 BETH punt on 4th & 1 at BETH 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00BETHKobe Stewart 8 Yd pass from Joel Morris 6–73
- Q4 14:56UCFRocco Marriott 1 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–73
- Q3 2:02UCFAgyeman Addae 39 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–66
- Q3 5:42UCFCaleb Rollerson 9 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Will Stone Kick)0–59
- Q3 9:10UCFLanden Chambers 27 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–52
- Q3 13:02UCFTaevion Swint 27 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–45
- Q2 1:50UCFLanden Chambers 2 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–38
- Q2 7:19UCFWill Stone 34 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 14:54UCFJonathan Bibbs 23 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:11UCFAlonza Barnett III 5 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–21
- Q1 10:42UCFJayden Williams 47 Yd Interception Return (Will Stone Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:02UCFDuke Watson 64 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -38 (99% to win) — 5.5 points clear of BETH's market line of -43.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
UCF runs away from Bethune-Cookman, 73-6
A comfortable UCF win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
The big plays only went one way
UCF produced 17 plays of 15+ yards to Bethune-Cookman's 3: Alonza Barnett (involved in 7), Duke Watson (involved in 2) and Agyeman Addae (involved in 2). UCF scored on 77% of its drives to Bethune-Cookman's 13%, chiefly Duke Watson (6 pts), Alonza Barnett (12 pts) and Landen Chambers (12 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Duke Watson ran seven times for 110 yards and one score. Alonza Barnett threw for 158 yards on 18 attempts with one touchdown and ran five times for 9 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Landen Chambers ran six times for 56 yards and two scores, with that score from inside the 20. For Bethune-Cookman, Tyler Jefferson threw for 55 yards on 10 attempts and ran eight times for 11 yards. Rickie Shaw II caught four passes for 40 yards. Aymeric Koumba was the disruptive one for UCF: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles.
What Bethune-Cookman has to fix
The problems had names: Tyler Jefferson (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep: Jaden Davis (1 INT, 2 tackles) for Bethune-Cookman, Aymeric Koumba (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles) for UCF and Ty Bartrum (1 forced fumble, 2 tackles) for UCF.
The order of events
UCF struck first through Duke Watson, led 38-0 at the half and the final points came on a late score by Kobe Stewart.
How it graded
The closing line had UCF -43.5. UCF covered. The total was 58.5; the teams combined for 79, an over. Landen Chambers accounted for 12 of UCF's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
UCF cleared the bar with room to spare; Bethune-Cookman goes back to the drawing board. Joel Morris was responsible for 6 of Bethune-Cookman's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →