Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsOU
- Q4 9:43OUKalib Hicks 6 Yd Run (Gavin Marshall Kick)0–73
- Q3 3:45OUJackson Arnold 7 Yd Run (Gavin Marshall Kick)0–66
- Q3 6:29OUJayden Gibson 21 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick)0–59
- Q3 9:46OUTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–52
- Q2 0:37OUZach Schmit 21 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q2 8:33OUDillon Gabriel 5 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–42
- Q2 12:21OUTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:31OUGavin Freeman 7 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)0–28
- Q1 7:50OUMarcus Major 2 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–21
- Q1 12:38OUGavin Freeman 82 Yd Punt Return (Zach Schmit Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:41OUDrake Stoops 10 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.7
- ARST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 24% success rate
- PassJ.T. Shrout 12/26, 148 YDS
- RushJaxon Dailey 3 CAR, 11 YDS
- RecCourtney Jackson 3 REC, 66 YDS
- PassDillon Gabriel 19/22, 308 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJovantae Barnes 13 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecNic Anderson 2 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 66 entering the 4th quarter. Across 56 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:41OU +8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma?
Arkansas State 0, Oklahoma 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| ARST | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 208 | Total yards | 642 |
| 160 | Passing yards | 422 |
| 48 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 10 | First downs | 36 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 11-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/27 | Comp/Att | 30/33 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 14-111 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 23:04 | Possession | 36:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:37 OU field goal on 4th & 3 at ARST 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:43OUKalib Hicks 6 Yd Run (Gavin Marshall Kick)0–73
- Q3 3:45OUJackson Arnold 7 Yd Run (Gavin Marshall Kick)0–66
- Q3 6:29OUJayden Gibson 21 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick)0–59
- Q3 9:46OUTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–52
- Q2 0:37OUZach Schmit 21 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q2 8:33OUDillon Gabriel 5 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–42
- Q2 12:21OUTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:31OUGavin Freeman 7 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)0–28
- Q1 7:50OUMarcus Major 2 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)0–21
- Q1 12:38OUGavin Freeman 82 Yd Punt Return (Zach Schmit Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:41OUDrake Stoops 10 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1608, ARST Elo 1256 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -16.5 (86% to win) — 19.0 points clear of ARST's market line of -35.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARST | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#100) | CORE overall | +28.0 (#6) |
| -3 / +8 | offense / defense | +16 / -12 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 3.16 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.77 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →