Colgate vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Colgate

00

Syracuse

▸0065

Final

JMA Wireless Dome

	1	2	3	4	T
COLG	0	0	0	0	0
SYR	23	14	28	0	65

COLGTeam statsSYR

106Total yards677

52Pass406

54Rush271

7First downs34

3-173rd down9-16

3Turnovers3

29:20Possession30:40

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:34SYRDarrell Gill Jr. 18 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–65
• Q3 7:13SYRKendall Long 25 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–58
• Q3 7:48SYRIsaiah Jones 5 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–51
• Q3 11:55SYRUmari Hatcher 4 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–44
• Q2 7:13SYROronde Gadsden II 14 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–37
• Q2 11:36SYRIsaiah Jones 44 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–30
• Q1 0:54SYRBrady Denaburg 25 Yd Field Goal 0–23
• Q1 3:41SYRJeremiah Wilson 34 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–20
• Q1 5:00SYRDamien Alford 13 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:18SYRLeQuint Allen 3 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SYR −40

Against the number

SYR covered

line SYR −40

What the numbers say

• COLG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SYR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SYR 100%50%COLG 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SYR (top)COLG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SYR 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SYR −40

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

COLG 0 – 65 SYR

Leaders

Colgate

• PassMichael Brescia 7/14, 29 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJaedon Henry 10 CAR, 34 YDS
• RecWinston Moore 3 REC, 19 YDS

Syracuse

• PassGarrett Shrader 18/24, 257 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
• RushLeQuint Allen Jr. 16 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
• RecUmari Hatcher 4 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.45

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SYR up 65 entering the 4th quarter. Across 62 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SYR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOklahoma vs Arkansas State73-0WOle Miss vs Furman76-0WDavidson vs Laurinburg84-6WSMU vs Tulsa69-10WAuburn vs Alabama A&M73-3

Fourth downs

16 calls

SYR gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.COLG 10/11 · SYR 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Colgate vs. Syracuse?

Colgate 0, Syracuse 65.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SYR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

COLG

SYR

12%

Success rate

55%

-0.45

EPA / pass

0.83

-0.33

EPA / rush

0.08

8%

Early-down success

54%

13%

Pass success

68%

12%

Rush success

45%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

40%

Pass rate

42%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

COLG

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

SYR

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

88 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

COLG		SYR
106	Total yards	677
52	Passing yards	406
54	Rushing yards	271
7	First downs	34
3-17	3rd down	9-16
0-2	4th down	1-2
11/20	Comp/Att	28/37
2.6	Yards per pass	11.0
1.4	Yards per rush	5.2
3	Turnovers	3
6-40	Penalties	7-60
29:20	Possession	30:40

Fourth downs

16 calls

COLG

10/11 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

SYR

2/3 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 0:54 SYR field goal on 4th & 3 at COLG 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

COLG 1/16 scoring drives← own end zone →SYR 9/14 scoring drives

COLGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

SYRPUNT7 pl, 17 yds· own 24Q1

COLGPUNT6 pl, 5 yds· own 10Q1

SYRTD4 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1

COLGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

SYRTD3 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q1

COLGTD3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

COLGFUM1 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

SYRFG7 pl, 35 yds· opp 42Q1

COLGPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

SYRTD8 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

COLGDOWNS7 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

SYRTD2 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

COLGPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q2

SYRINT13 pl, 70 yds· own 10Q2

COLGEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 31Q2

SYRTD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

SYRTD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

COLGINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

SYRTD1 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

SYRTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

SYRFUM10 pl, 65 yds· own 22Q4

COLGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 13Q4

SYRFUM6 pl, 35 yds· own 42Q4

COLGDOWNS5 pl, 30 yds· own 23Q4

SYRDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q4

COLGEND6 pl, 0 yds· own 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:34SYRDarrell Gill Jr. 18 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–65
• Q3 7:13SYRKendall Long 25 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–58
• Q3 7:48SYRIsaiah Jones 5 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–51
• Q3 11:55SYRUmari Hatcher 4 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–44
• Q2 7:13SYROronde Gadsden II 14 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–37
• Q2 11:36SYRIsaiah Jones 44 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–30
• Q1 0:54SYRBrady Denaburg 25 Yd Field Goal 0–23
• Q1 3:41SYRJeremiah Wilson 34 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–20
• Q1 5:00SYRDamien Alford 13 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:18SYRLeQuint Allen 3 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →