Florida State vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 9:21FSUJake Weinberg 33 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 3:02STANCole Tabb 1 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:40FSUTommy Castellanos 8 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)10–13
- Q2 2:53STANEmmet Kenney 26 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 9:13STANCJ Williams 7 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)3–10
- Q2 14:34FSUJake Weinberg 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:41STANEmmet Kenney 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassThomas Castellanos 14/28, 242 YDS
- RushGavin Sawchuk 20 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecMicahi Danzy 3 REC, 106 YDS
- PassBen Gulbranson 6/13, 90 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCole Tabb 28 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Roush 6 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 15:00FSU +59%
PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU25 to FSU20. NO PLAY
- Q4 7:43STAN +17%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds, Squirrel White returns for 3 yds to the FSU 25
- Q4 3:46STAN +15%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 39
- Q4 14:18STAN +14%
PENALTY FSU Offside (Lyons,Daniel) 5 yards from STAN37 to STAN42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q3 5:13STAN +12%
Shotgun Brown,Elijah pass incomplete deep left to Roush,Sam thrown to FSU23 PENALTY FSU Roughing The Passer (Williams,James) 15 yards from FSU44 to FSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO…
- Q3 1:21FSU +8%
Mac Chiumento punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Stanford?
Florida State 13, Stanford 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 444 | Total yards | 293 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 132 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/35 | Comp/Att | 12/25 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-79 | Penalties | 5-47 |
| 27:04 | Possession | 32:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:45 STAN punt on 4th & 2 at STAN 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:21FSUJake Weinberg 33 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 3:02STANCole Tabb 1 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:40FSUTommy Castellanos 8 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)10–13
- Q2 2:53STANEmmet Kenney 26 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 9:13STANCJ Williams 7 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)3–10
- Q2 14:34FSUJake Weinberg 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:41STANEmmet Kenney 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1241, FSU Elo 1572 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +10.8 (25% to win) — 6.7 points clear of STAN's market line of +17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #10 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| FSU | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#29) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#102) |
| +13 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →