Oregon State vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsAF
- Q4 3:05AFOwen Allen 2 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–28
- Q4 12:58AFDylan Carson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:45AFQuentin Hayes 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:18AFQuentin Hayes 4 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGabarri Johnson 9/19, 106 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGabarri Johnson 13 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecTrent Walker 3 REC, 36 YDS
- PassQuentin Hayes 5/5, 110 YDS
- RushDylan Carson 26 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCade Harris 2 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:18AF +18%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q2 4:45AF +17%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q3 0:52AF +5%
Oregon State Penalty, Offsides (Andy Alfieri) to the ORST 18
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Air Force?
Oregon State 0, Air Force 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORST | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | Total yards | 409 |
| 106 | Passing yards | 139 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 270 |
| 9 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/21 | Comp/Att | 6/6 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 23.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 18:04 | Possession | 41:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:09 ORST punt on 4th & 1 at ORST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:05AFOwen Allen 2 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–28
- Q4 12:58AFDylan Carson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:45AFQuentin Hayes 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:18AFQuentin Hayes 4 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1316, ORST Elo 1446 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +2.8 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #97 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| ORST | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -10.3 (#98) |
| -5 / +12 | offense / defense | -8 / +2 |
| 1.98 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 3.08 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -31 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →