James Madison vs. North Carolina: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

James Madison2-0

▸

North Carolina3-0

Final

Kenan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
JMU	25	28	7	10	70
UNC	14	7	17	12	50

JMUTeam statsUNC

611Total yards616

388Pass475

223Rush141

25First downs30

6-143rd down2-9

1Turnovers5

34:06Possession25:54

Q4 1:18UNCJordan Shipp 5 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)70–50
Q4 4:26JMULogan Kyle 11 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)70–44
Q4 11:00UNCOmarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)63–44
Q4 13:28JMUNoe Ruelas 44 Yd Field Goal 63–38
Q3 3:08UNCDavion Gause 34 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)60–38
Q3 7:11UNCOmarion Hampton 15 Yd Run (Jacolby Criswell Pass to Bryson Nesbit for Two-Point Conversion)60–32
Q3 9:16JMUDylan Williams 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)60–24
Q3 11:35UNCNoah Burnette 42 Yd Field Goal 53–24
Q2 0:56JMUTerrence Spence 33 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)53–21
Q2 7:14JMUAlonza Barnett III 27 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)46–21
Q2 8:45JMUTaylor Thompson 13 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)39–21
Q2 10:20JMUCam Ross 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)32–21
Q2 14:33UNCBryson Nesbit 34 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)25–21
Q1 1:23JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)25–14
Q1 3:36JMUOmarion Dollison 69 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)18–14
Q1 4:08UNCOmarion Hampton 28 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)11–14
Q1 8:12UNCJohn Copenhaver 35 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)11–7
Q1 10:36JMUJayden Mines 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Noe Ruelas Pass to Jack Mowrey for Two-Point Conversion)11–0
Q1 13:36JMUNoe Ruelas 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Model line

JMU −3.4

market UNC −11

Biggest swing

UNC +19%

Q1 4:08

Against the number

JMU covered

line UNC −11

What the numbers say

UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.8 vs 3rd & 6.9

UNC favored ↑50%JMU favored ↓

GridpexJMU 100%

Closing line

UNC −11

Closing total

48.5

Model line

JMU −3.4

Actual result

JMU 70 – 50 UNC

James Madison

PassAlonza Barnett III 22/34, 388 YDS, 5 TD
RushAlonza Barnett III 13 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
RecOmarion Dollison 3 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD

North Carolina

PassJacolby Criswell 28/48, 475 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
RushOmarion Hampton 19 CAR, 139 YDS, 3 TD
RecKobe Paysour 4 REC, 93 YDS

22.3sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

158

Points / snap

0.76

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JMU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 823 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

JMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs San José State56-28 WVillanova vs Colgate42-19 WFurman vs The Citadel28-14 WBoise State vs Wyoming32-7 WFresno State vs Sacramento State46-30

Q1 4:08UNC +19%
Omarion Hampton run for 28 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
Q1 3:36JMU +19%
Omarion Dollison 69 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)
Q1 10:36JMU +16%
Jayden Mines 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Noe Ruelas Pass to Jack Mowrey for Two-Point Conversion)
Q2 10:20JMU +16%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
Q2 14:33UNC +16%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
Q1 1:23JMU +15%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of James Madison vs. North Carolina?

James Madison 70, North Carolina 50.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.

JMU

UNC

45%

Success rate

51%

0.54

EPA / pass

0.17

0.29

EPA / rush

0.56

43%

Early-down success

53%

49%

Pass success

53%

41%

Rush success

48%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

26%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

49%

Pass rate

67%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

10.8

JMU

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

UNC

10.8 yards to go on 3rd down

82 scrimmage snaps

JMU		UNC
611	Total yards	616
388	Passing yards	475
223	Rushing yards	141
25	First downs	30
6-14	3rd down	2-9
1-1	4th down	1-1
22/34	Comp/Att	28/48
11.4	Yards per pass	9.9
5.7	Yards per rush	4.5
1	Turnovers	5
12-105	Penalties	9-76
34:06	Possession	25:54

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

JMU 10/16 scoring drives← own end zone →UNC 9/16 scoring drives

JMUFG5 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q1

UNCFUM3 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q1

JMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 8Q1

UNCTD3 pl, 2 yds· own 40Q1

UNCTD6 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

JMUPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 32Q1

UNCTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

JMUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

JMUTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

UNCTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

JMUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

UNCPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

JMUTD2 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

UNCFUM4 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

JMUTD1 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q2

UNCINT3 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

JMUFUM2 pl, 31 yds· own 35Q2

UNCPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 34Q2

JMUPUNT9 pl, 26 yds· own 29Q2

UNCTD3 pl, 9 yds· own 8Q2

UNCEND3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

UNCFG9 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q3

JMUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

UNCTD6 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3

JMUTD6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3

JMUFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q3

UNCTD7 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4

JMUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

UNCFUM4 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q4

JMUTD7 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q4

UNCTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

JMUEND2 pl, 2 yds· opp 46Q4

Q4 1:18UNCJordan Shipp 5 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)70–50
Q4 4:26JMULogan Kyle 11 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)70–44
Q4 11:00UNCOmarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)63–44
Q4 13:28JMUNoe Ruelas 44 Yd Field Goal 63–38
Q3 3:08UNCDavion Gause 34 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)60–38
Q3 7:11UNCOmarion Hampton 15 Yd Run (Jacolby Criswell Pass to Bryson Nesbit for Two-Point Conversion)60–32
Q3 9:16JMUDylan Williams 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)60–24
Q3 11:35UNCNoah Burnette 42 Yd Field Goal 53–24
Q2 0:56JMUTerrence Spence 33 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)53–21
Q2 7:14JMUAlonza Barnett III 27 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)46–21
Q2 8:45JMUTaylor Thompson 13 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)39–21
Q2 10:20JMUCam Ross 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)32–21
Q2 14:33UNCBryson Nesbit 34 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)25–21
Q1 1:23JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)25–14
Q1 3:36JMUOmarion Dollison 69 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)18–14
Q1 4:08UNCOmarion Hampton 28 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)11–14
Q1 8:12UNCJohn Copenhaver 35 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)11–7
Q1 10:36JMUJayden Mines 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Noe Ruelas Pass to Jack Mowrey for Two-Point Conversion)11–0
Q1 13:36JMUNoe Ruelas 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

UNC 1554

JMU 1699

Projected spread

UNC +3.4

incl. home edge

Model pick

JMU

58% to win

Market spread

UNC -11

sportsbook line

Model vs market

JMU

14.4 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

42%

UNC · market 78%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1554, JMU Elo 1699 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC +3.4 (42% to win) — 14.4 points clear of JMU's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2024

nationally ranked

JMU2024 season · national rank shownUNC

409.544th

Total yards / game

406.948th

5.966th

Yards / play

6.057th

215.982nd

Passing yards / game

224.471st

193.528th

Rushing yards / game

182.538th

40.5%68th

3rd down %

37.5%93rd

321.823rd

Yards allowed / game

376.972nd

32.6%16th

3rd down % allowed

35.1%30th

+201st

Turnover margin

-269th

7.0105th

Penalties / game

7.5118th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

James Madison were +11 — a 25% shot

#20 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #35 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.

The 2024 upset archive →

Opponent-adjusted profile2024

JMU		UNC
+3.9 (#52)	CORE overall	-4.5 (#84)
-5 / -9	offense / defense	+0 / +5
2.39	points / drive	2.13
1.32	allowed / drive	2.22
20%	three-and-outs	32%
-1	pass over expected	-2

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

JMUTeam statsUNC

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of James Madison vs. North Carolina?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2024

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

James Madison vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap

JMUTeam statsUNC

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of James Madison vs. North Carolina?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups