Norfolk State vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Norfolk State

09

Temple1-1

▸0041

Final

Lincoln Financial Field

	1	2	3	4	T
NORF	0	7	0	2	9
TEM	14	14	10	3	41

NORFTeam statsTEM

240Total yards532

110Pass242

130Rush290

15First downs27

4-153rd down4-10

0Turnovers1

30:24Possession29:36

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:59TEMCamden Price 36 Yd Field Goal 9–41
• Q4 12:42NORFTeam Safety9–38
• Q3 3:24TEMQuincy Patterson 2 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–38
• Q3 10:02TEMCamden Price 38 Yd Field Goal 7–31
• Q2 5:23TEMDarvon Hubbard 21 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–28
• Q2 9:00TEMJoquez Smith 51 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–21
• Q2 10:23NORFAaron Moore 2 Yd pass from Otto Kuhns (Grandin Willcox Kick)7–14
• Q1 1:09TEMQuincy Patterson 1 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:37TEMJoquez Smith 15 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TEM −30.5

Against the number

TEM covered

line TEM −30.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TEM 100%50%NORF 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TEM (top)NORF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TEM 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TEM −30.5

Closing total

55.0

Model line

—

Actual result

NORF 9 – 41 TEM

Leaders

Norfolk State

• PassOtto Kuhns 12/21, 110 YDS, 1 TD
• RushX'Zavion Evans 13 CAR, 59 YDS
• RecLex Henry 1 REC, 24 YDS

Temple

• PassE.J. Warner 14/22, 238 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJoquez Smith 15 CAR, 142 YDS, 1 TD
• RecAmad Anderson Jr. 5 REC, 79 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TEM up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 341 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TEM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WButler vs Taylor41-13WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WLamar vs Lincoln (CA)38-0WUtah vs Arizona State55-3

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORF gave up 0.5 points to the model on fourth down.NORF 8/10 · TEM 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Norfolk State vs. Temple?

Norfolk State 9, Temple 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORF

TEM

25%

Success rate

51%

0.04

EPA / pass

0.72

-0.10

EPA / rush

0.30

22%

Early-down success

49%

26%

Pass success

46%

24%

Rush success

54%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

24%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

42%

Pass rate

39%

6.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

NORF

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

TEM

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORF		TEM
240	Total yards	532
110	Passing yards	242
130	Rushing yards	290
15	First downs	27
4-15	3rd down	4-10
1-2	4th down	4-4
12/22	Comp/Att	15/23
5.0	Yards per pass	10.5
3.3	Yards per rush	7.1
0	Turnovers	1
4-36	Penalties	9-71
30:24	Possession	29:36

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORF

8/10 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

TEM

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 0:00 NORF go for it on 4th & 6 at TEM 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORF 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →TEM 7/10 scoring drives

TEMTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

NORFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

TEMFUM5 pl, 49 yds· own 40Q1

NORFPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 11Q1

TEMTD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

NORFTD13 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

TEMTD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

NORFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

TEMTD5 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

NORFMISS10 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q2

TEMMISS7 pl, 49 yds· own 20Q2

NORFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q3

TEMFG8 pl, 65 yds· own 15Q3

NORFPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 22Q3

TEMTD12 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q3

NORFDOWNS11 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q3

TEMSAF1 pl, -1 yds· own 1Q4

NORFMISS9 pl, 41 yds· own 27Q4

TEMFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 32Q4

NORFEND3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:59TEMCamden Price 36 Yd Field Goal 9–41
• Q4 12:42NORFTeam Safety9–38
• Q3 3:24TEMQuincy Patterson 2 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–38
• Q3 10:02TEMCamden Price 38 Yd Field Goal 7–31
• Q2 5:23TEMDarvon Hubbard 21 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–28
• Q2 9:00TEMJoquez Smith 51 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–21
• Q2 10:23NORFAaron Moore 2 Yd pass from Otto Kuhns (Grandin Willcox Kick)7–14
• Q1 1:09TEMQuincy Patterson 1 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:37TEMJoquez Smith 15 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →