Nicholls vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Nicholls0-1
Tulane2-1
▸Final
Yulman Stadium
NICHTeam statsTULN
335Total yards408
273Pass258
62Rush150
21First downs19
2-113rd down6-12
4Turnovers3
32:26Possession27:34
- Q4 6:19TULNValentino Ambrosio 31 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q3 4:01TULNMichael Pratt 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–33
- Q2 0:38TULNValentino Ambrosio 45 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 3:33NICHNeno Lemay 13 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)7–24
- Q2 9:08TULNLawrence Keys III 15 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:12TULNLawrence Keys III 40 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:30TULNValentino Ambrosio 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:32TULNShi'Keem Laister 27 Yd Punt Return (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
TULN −38
Against the number
NICH covered
line TULN −38
What the numbers say
- NICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.8 vs 3rd & 6.3
- NICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 39% success rate
Kickoff147 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
TULN (top)NICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TULN 100%
Closing line
TULN −38
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NICH 7 – 36 TULN
Nicholls
- PassPat McQuaide 27/39, 273 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushCollin Guggenheim 14 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecNeno Lemay 8 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Tulane
- PassMichael Pratt 18/23, 190 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushArnold Barnes III 4 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecLawrence Keys III 4 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
126
Points / snap
0.34
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 729 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TULN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Tulane?
Nicholls 7, Tulane 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
NICH
TULN
39%
Success rate
48%
0.11
EPA / pass
0.18
-0.01
EPA / rush
0.21
42%
Early-down success
48%
45%
Pass success
53%
29%
Rush success
43%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
8%
Stuffed rush rate
7%
64%
Pass rate
53%
12.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.3
NICH
12.8 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
TULN
6.3 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
| NICH | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total yards | 408 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 9-90 |
| 32:26 | Possession | 27:34 |
NICH
5/7 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
TULN
4/4 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q2 9:08 NICH go for it on 4th & 4 at TULN 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNICH 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TULN 6/11 scoring drives
TULNPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 27Q1
NICHTD5 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q1
NICHPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 15Q1
TULNFG10 pl, 36 yds· midfieldQ1
NICHINT4 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
TULNTD1 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1
NICHINT8 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1
TULNTD3 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q2
NICHTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
TULNFG10 pl, 41 yds· own 32Q2
NICHEND1 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2
NICHPUNT6 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
TULNINT12 pl, 59 yds· own 33Q3
NICHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q3
TULNTD3 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q3
NICHDOWNS11 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q3
TULNINT6 pl, 66 yds· own 16Q4
NICHPUNT6 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q4
TULNFG6 pl, 74 yds· own 13Q4
NICHPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 23Q4
TULNPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 16Q4
NICHINT4 pl, 50 yds· own 32Q4
TULNFUM2 pl, 3 yds· own 16Q4
- Q4 6:19TULNValentino Ambrosio 31 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q3 4:01TULNMichael Pratt 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–33
- Q2 0:38TULNValentino Ambrosio 45 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 3:33NICHNeno Lemay 13 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)7–24
- Q2 9:08TULNLawrence Keys III 15 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:12TULNLawrence Keys III 40 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:30TULNValentino Ambrosio 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:32TULNShi'Keem Laister 27 Yd Punt Return (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →