Cal Poly vs. Montana State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Cal Poly0-1

0019

Montana State4-1

▸0059

Final

Bobcat StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
CAL	6	7	6	0	19
MONT	21	17	7	14	59

CAL Team statsMONT

306Total yards578

233Pass243

73Rush335

15First downs25

1-133rd down2-8

0Turnovers0

31:12Possession28:48

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:28MONTAdam Jones 49 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–59
• Q4 11:26MONTElijah Elliott 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–52
• Q3 3:21MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–45
• Q3 6:34CAL Tyrece Fairly-Diyem 23 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT failed)19–38
• Q2 0:28MONTJared White 17 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)13–38
• Q2 2:31CAL Evan Burkhart 41 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)13–31
• Q2 9:42MONTBrendan Hall 44 Yd Field Goal 6–31
• Q2 12:49MONTDerryk Snell 12 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)6–28
• Q1 5:20MONTSean Chambers 64 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–21
• Q1 7:27MONTSean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–14
• Q1 9:42CAL Giancarlo Woods 16 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT blocked)6–7
• Q1 12:32MONTTy McCullouch 65 Yd Punt Return (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MONT −39

Against the number

MONT covered

line MONT −39

What the numbers say

• CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%CAL 100%

Kickoff143 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONT −39

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

CAL 19 – 59 MONT

Leaders

Cal Poly

• PassSam Huard 19/36, 225 YDS, 3 TD
• RushMark Biggins 10 CAR, 54 YDS
• RecGiancarlo Woods 5 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD

Montana State

• PassSean Chambers 7/15, 151 YDS
• RushJared White 14 CAR, 93 YDS
• RecTy McCullouch 4 REC, 119 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.65

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 728 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTulane vs Nicholls36-7WTexas State vs Southern Miss50-36WMonmouth vs Maine51-24WDuquesne vs Long Island University47-21WPresbyterian vs Marist42-23

Fourth downs

17 calls

MONT gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.CAL 10/11 · MONT 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. Montana State?

Cal Poly 19, Montana State 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CAL

MONT

30%

Success rate

51%

0.34

EPA / pass

0.50

-0.15

EPA / rush

0.69

35%

Early-down success

55%

35%

Pass success

42%

22%

Rush success

58%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

64%

Pass rate

42%

9.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

10.5

CAL

9.5 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

MONT

10.5 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CAL		MONT
306	Total yards	578
233	Passing yards	243
73	Rushing yards	335
15	First downs	25
1-13	3rd down	2-8
1-1	4th down	0-0
21/39	Comp/Att	14/24
6.0	Yards per pass	10.1
3.0	Yards per rush	9.6
0	Turnovers	0
6-50	Penalties	5-55
31:12	Possession	28:48

Fourth downs

17 calls

CAL

10/11 with the model

nothing given up

MONT

4/5 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 4:41 MONT punt on 4th & 1 at MONT 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CAL 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 8/13 scoring drives

MONTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 35Q1

CAL TD3 pl, 3 yds· own 13Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

CAL TD5 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1

MONTTD5 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD2 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 24Q1

MONTTD6 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

MONTFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 30Q2

CAL PUNT5 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q2

MONTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q2

CAL TD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

MONTTD6 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2

CAL END1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2

CAL MISS10 pl, 64 yds· own 16Q3

MONTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q3

CAL TD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

MONTTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

CAL PUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

CAL PUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4

MONTTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

CAL PUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q4

MONTEND4 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:28MONTAdam Jones 49 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–59
• Q4 11:26MONTElijah Elliott 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–52
• Q3 3:21MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–45
• Q3 6:34CAL Tyrece Fairly-Diyem 23 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT failed)19–38
• Q2 0:28MONTJared White 17 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)13–38
• Q2 2:31CAL Evan Burkhart 41 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)13–31
• Q2 9:42MONTBrendan Hall 44 Yd Field Goal 6–31
• Q2 12:49MONTDerryk Snell 12 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)6–28
• Q1 5:20MONTSean Chambers 64 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–21
• Q1 7:27MONTSean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–14
• Q1 9:42CAL Giancarlo Woods 16 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT blocked)6–7
• Q1 12:32MONTTy McCullouch 65 Yd Punt Return (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →