Monmouth vs. Maine: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Monmouth

▸0051

Maine

0022

Final

Alfond StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MONM	20	7	14	10	51
MAIN	8	0	7	7	22

MONMTeam statsMAIN

632Total yards286

390Pass158

242Rush128

31First downs17

11-153rd down3-10

0Turnovers2

33:04Possession26:56

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:09MONMMichael Calton Jr. 42 Yd Field Goal 51–22
• Q4 13:55MONMJosh Derry 94 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)48–22
• Q4 14:18MAINJoe Gillette 2 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)41–22
• Q3 3:36MONMRodney Nelson 24 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)41–15
• Q3 6:51MAINJaharie Martin 1 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)34–15
• Q3 12:02MONMJosh Derry 56 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)34–8
• Q2 4:51MONMSone Ntoh 2 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)27–8
• Q1 0:57MAINTrevin Ewing 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Carter Peevy Pass to Declan McKevitt for Two-Point Conversion)20–8
• Q1 1:02MONMMarcus Middleton 25 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)20–0
• Q1 2:58MONMJack Neri 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–0
• Q1 8:01MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

MAIN −2.5

Against the number

MONM covered

line MAIN −2.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MAIN 100%50%MONM 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MAIN (top)MONM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MAIN 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MAIN −2.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MONM 51 – 22 MAIN

Leaders

Monmouth

• PassDerek Robertson 22/36, 390 YDS, 4 TD
• RushRodney Nelson 14 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJosh Derry 7 REC, 227 YDS, 2 TD

Maine

• PassCarter Peevy 16/26, 159 YDS
• RushJaharie Martin 11 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMontigo Moss 7 REC, 53 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

133

Points / snap

0.55

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONM up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 727 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

MONM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTulane vs Nicholls36-7WTexas State vs Southern Miss50-36WMontana State vs Cal Poly59-19WDuquesne vs Long Island University47-21WPresbyterian vs Marist42-23

Fourth downs

11 calls

MONM gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.MONM 2/4 · MAIN 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Monmouth vs. Maine?

Monmouth 51, Maine 22.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MAIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MONM

MAIN

53%

Success rate

39%

0.76

EPA / pass

0.14

0.42

EPA / rush

0.26

45%

Early-down success

39%

54%

Pass success

33%

51%

Rush success

44%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

49%

Pass rate

53%

6.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

MONM

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

MAIN

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MONM		MAIN
632	Total yards	286
390	Passing yards	158
242	Rushing yards	128
31	First downs	17
11-15	3rd down	3-10
2-2	4th down	1-2
22/37	Comp/Att	17/28
10.5	Yards per pass	5.6
6.2	Yards per rush	4.9
0	Turnovers	2
4-35	Penalties	6-38
33:04	Possession	26:56

Fourth downs

11 calls

MONM

2/4 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

MAIN

6/7 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 11:29 MONM go for it on 4th & 7 at MAIN 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.48 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MONM 8/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MAIN 2/8 scoring drives

MONMTD16 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q1

MONMTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q1

MONMTD3 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1

MONMPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

MAINPUNT8 pl, 24 yds· own 17Q2

MONMTD12 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

MAINMISS13 pl, 64 yds· own 29Q2

MONMEND4 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q2

MAINPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 12Q3

MONMTD4 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

MAINTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

MONMTD6 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3

MAINTD8 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3

MONMTD1 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q4

MAINDOWNS9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4

MONMFG11 pl, 47 yds· own 28Q4

MONMEND6 pl, 22 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:09MONMMichael Calton Jr. 42 Yd Field Goal 51–22
• Q4 13:55MONMJosh Derry 94 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)48–22
• Q4 14:18MAINJoe Gillette 2 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)41–22
• Q3 3:36MONMRodney Nelson 24 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)41–15
• Q3 6:51MAINJaharie Martin 1 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)34–15
• Q3 12:02MONMJosh Derry 56 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)34–8
• Q2 4:51MONMSone Ntoh 2 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)27–8
• Q1 0:57MAINTrevin Ewing 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Carter Peevy Pass to Declan McKevitt for Two-Point Conversion)20–8
• Q1 1:02MONMMarcus Middleton 25 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)20–0
• Q1 2:58MONMJack Neri 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–0
• Q1 8:01MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →