Oklahoma vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsOSU
- Q4 6:29OSUSean Nuernberger 32 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q4 9:26OUJordan Smallwood 3 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)31–13
- Q4 11:11OUTrey Sermon 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)24–13
- Q3 2:17OULee Morris 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)17–13
- Q3 8:10OSUSean Nuernberger 24 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 10:50OUDimitri Flowers 36 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)10–10
- Q3 12:37OSUJ.K. Dobbins 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)3–10
- Q2 0:25OUAustin Seibert 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 11:11OSUSean Nuernberger 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBaker Mayfield 27/35, 386 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTrey Sermon 17 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecDimitri Flowers 7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJ.T. Barrett 19/35, 183 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJ.K. Dobbins 13 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKJ Hill Jr. 5 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:17OU +40%
Lee Morris 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
- Q4 11:11OU +24%
Trey Sermon 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
- Q3 10:50OU +24%
Dimitri Flowers 36 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
- Q3 12:37OSU +21%
J.K. Dobbins 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q4 14:45OU +12%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Okla 36
- Q3 8:10OSU +11%
Sean Nuernberger 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Ohio State?
Oklahoma 31, Ohio State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 490 | Total yards | 350 |
| 386 | Passing yards | 183 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 27/35 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-26 | Penalties | 9-87 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:25 OU field goal on 4th & 1 at OSU 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:29OSUSean Nuernberger 32 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q4 9:26OUJordan Smallwood 3 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)31–13
- Q4 11:11OUTrey Sermon 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)24–13
- Q3 2:17OULee Morris 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)17–13
- Q3 8:10OSUSean Nuernberger 24 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 10:50OUDimitri Flowers 36 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)10–10
- Q3 12:37OSUJ.K. Dobbins 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)3–10
- Q2 0:25OUAustin Seibert 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 11:11OSUSean Nuernberger 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1990, OU Elo 1928 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -4.9 (64% to win) — 2.6 points clear of OU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #61 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #51 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →| OU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +36.4 (#3) | CORE overall | +36.2 (#4) |
| +34 / -3 | offense / defense | +20 / -16 |
| 3.71 | points / drive | 3.24 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →