West Virginia vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsTTU
- Q4 2:16WVURushel Shell 3 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)48–17
- Q4 8:13TTUJonathan Giles 16 Yd pass from Nic Shimonek (Clayton Hatfield Kick)41–17
- Q4 10:24WVURushel Shell 14 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)41–10
- Q4 14:51WVUSkyler Howard 1 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)34–10
- Q3 6:04WVUMike Molina 22 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 10:04TTUClayton Hatfield 42 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 4:22WVUSkyler Howard 8 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)24–7
- Q2 7:03WVUJustin Crawford 5 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Mike Molina Kick)17–7
- Q1 0:17WVUMike Molina 34 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 1:51TTUJonathan Giles 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:30WVUJustin Crawford 10 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TTU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassSkyler Howard 21/31, 318 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRushel Shell 21 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDaikiel Shorts 3 REC, 100 YDS
- PassPatrick Mahomes 28/44, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDa'Leon Ward 6 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecJonathan Giles 8 REC, 136 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:03WVU +21%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Justin Crawford for 5 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
- Q1 1:51TTU +18%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 44 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
- Q1 9:30WVU +17%
Justin Crawford run for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
- Q2 4:22WVU +11%
Skyler Howard run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
- Q1 0:17WVU +8%
Mike Molina 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Texas Tech?
West Virginia 48, Texas Tech 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| WVU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 650 | Total yards | 379 |
| 318 | Passing yards | 345 |
| 332 | Rushing yards | 34 |
| 28 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 32/50 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 7.2 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 10-103 |
| 29:38 | Possession | 30:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:51 TTU go for it on 4th & 33 at TTU 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16WVURushel Shell 3 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)48–17
- Q4 8:13TTUJonathan Giles 16 Yd pass from Nic Shimonek (Clayton Hatfield Kick)41–17
- Q4 10:24WVURushel Shell 14 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)41–10
- Q4 14:51WVUSkyler Howard 1 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)34–10
- Q3 6:04WVUMike Molina 22 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 10:04TTUClayton Hatfield 42 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 4:22WVUSkyler Howard 8 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)24–7
- Q2 7:03WVUJustin Crawford 5 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Mike Molina Kick)17–7
- Q1 0:17WVUMike Molina 34 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 1:51TTUJonathan Giles 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:30WVUJustin Crawford 10 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1577, WVU Elo 1697 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU +2.4 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #113 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Texas Tech leads 8–7 · Texas Tech has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| WVU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#24) | CORE overall | -1.2 (#68) |
| +7 / -5 | offense / defense | +13 / +14 |
| 2.38 | points / drive | 3.10 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →