Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsSYR
- Q4 5:23SYRDontae Strickland 16 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick)17–31
- Q4 7:56SYREric Dungey 1 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick)17–24
- Q4 13:53VTBucky Hodges 10 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Jerod Evans Pass to Chris Cunningham for Two-Point Conversion)17–17
- Q3 11:19VTIsaiah Ford 12 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye PAT blocked)9–17
- Q2 0:04SYRCole Murphy 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 14:49SYRBrisly Estime 84 Yd pass from Dontae Strickland (Cole Murphy Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:13VTJoey Slye 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:11SYRErvin Philips 58 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJerod Evans 20/33, 307 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJerod Evans 11 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecIsaiah Ford 8 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassEric Dungey 28/53, 311 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushEric Dungey 24 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecErvin Philips 11 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:56SYR +49%
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
- Q4 13:53VT +37%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 10 yds for a TD, (Jerod Evans pass to Chris Cunningham for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 11:19VT +21%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 12 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye PAT BLOCKED)
- Q2 14:49SYR +19%
Dontae Strickland pass complete to Brisly Estime for 84 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
- Q4 6:54SYR +17%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete
- Q3 8:23SYR +13%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted, touchback. Terrell Edmunds return for no gain
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse?
Virginia Tech 17, Syracuse 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 468 | Total yards | 561 |
| 307 | Passing yards | 405 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 156 |
| 21 | First downs | 32 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 10-21 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 30/55 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-53 | Penalties | 8-55 |
| 26:35 | Possession | 33:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:05 VT punt on 4th & 4 at SYR 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:23SYRDontae Strickland 16 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick)17–31
- Q4 7:56SYREric Dungey 1 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick)17–24
- Q4 13:53VTBucky Hodges 10 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Jerod Evans Pass to Chris Cunningham for Two-Point Conversion)17–17
- Q3 11:19VTIsaiah Ford 12 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye PAT blocked)9–17
- Q2 0:04SYRCole Murphy 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 14:49SYRBrisly Estime 84 Yd pass from Dontae Strickland (Cole Murphy Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:13VTJoey Slye 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:11SYRErvin Philips 58 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1307, VT Elo 1889 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +20.9 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #20 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #27 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Syracuse leads 12–9 · 38% have been one-possession games
| VT | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.9 (#17) | CORE overall | -6.5 (#90) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | -1 / +6 |
| 2.51 | points / drive | 1.55 |
| 1.76 | allowed / drive | 2.76 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →