Ole Miss vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsFLA
- Q4 4:04MISSMarkell Pack 7 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)10–38
- Q4 6:20FLAJordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)3–38
- Q4 6:39FLAJorge Powell 22 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q4 12:46FLAJorge Powell 31 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q3 5:25MISSGary Wunderlich 22 Yd Field Goal 3–25
- Q2 0:20FLAAntonio Callaway 15 Yd pass from Will Grier 0–25
- Q2 6:53FLABrandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 6:48FLAJake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 9:09FLADemarcus Robinson 36 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChad Kelly 26/40, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChad Kelly 15 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecLaquon Treadwell 5 REC, 42 YDS
- PassWill Grier 24/29, 271 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKelvin Taylor 27 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecDemarcus Robinson 8 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:09FLA +18%
Demarcus Robinson 36 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell Kick)
- Q1 6:48FLA +15%
Jake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed)
- Q2 6:53FLA +9%
Brandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Florida?
Ole Miss 10, Florida 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Total yards | 355 |
| 259 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/40 | Comp/Att | 24/29 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 28:10 | Possession | 31:50 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:59 MISS go for it on 4th & 15 at MISS 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:04MISSMarkell Pack 7 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)10–38
- Q4 6:20FLAJordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Jorge Powell Kick)3–38
- Q4 6:39FLAJorge Powell 22 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q4 12:46FLAJorge Powell 31 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q3 5:25MISSGary Wunderlich 22 Yd Field Goal 3–25
- Q2 0:20FLAAntonio Callaway 15 Yd pass from Will Grier 0–25
- Q2 6:53FLABrandon Powell 77 Yd pass from Will Grier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 6:48FLAJake McGee 2 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 9:09FLADemarcus Robinson 36 Yd pass from Will Grier (Jorge Powell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1720, MISS Elo 1816 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +1.4 (47% to win) — 5.1 points clear of FLA's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #64 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #6 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →The series is level at 13–13–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| MISS | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.0 (#5) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#35) |
| +14 / -10 | offense / defense | -1 / -11 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 1.30 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →