East Carolina vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsCONN
- Q4 4:29CONNBryant Shirreffs 3 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)13–31
- Q4 9:25ECUBlake Kemp 2 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)13–24
- Q3 1:51CONNArkeel Newsome 90 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–24
- Q3 3:38CONNAlec Bloom 23 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–17
- Q2 7:44CONNArkeel Newsome 2 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–10
- Q1 0:22CONNBobby Puyol 45 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 5:15ECUDaShawn Benton 32 Yd Interception Return (Davis Plowman PAT blocked)6–0
How the model called it
- PassJames Summers 12/21, 87 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMarquez Grayson 9 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecZay Jones 9 REC, 85 YDS
- PassBryant Shirreffs 12/21, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushArkeel Newsome 25 CAR, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNoel Thomas 5 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:38CONN +27%
Alec Bloom 23 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)
- Q2 7:44CONN +21%
Arkeel Newsome 2 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)
- Q3 1:51CONN +18%
Arkeel Newsome 90 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)
- Q1 5:15ECU +12%
DaShawn Benton 32 Yd Interception Return (Davis Plowman PAT blocked)
- Q3 6:48CONN +9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 42
- Q4 9:25ECU +9%
Blake Kemp 2 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. UConn?
East Carolina 13, UConn 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 404 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 184 |
| 203 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-64 | Penalties | 5-34 |
| 25:32 | Possession | 34:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:08 CONN punt on 4th & 1 at CONN 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29CONNBryant Shirreffs 3 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)13–31
- Q4 9:25ECUBlake Kemp 2 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)13–24
- Q3 1:51CONNArkeel Newsome 90 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–24
- Q3 3:38CONNAlec Bloom 23 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–17
- Q2 7:44CONNArkeel Newsome 2 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)6–10
- Q1 0:22CONNBobby Puyol 45 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 5:15ECUDaShawn Benton 32 Yd Interception Return (Davis Plowman PAT blocked)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1309, ECU Elo 1559 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN +7.6 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #61 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| ECU | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.6 (#64) | CORE overall | -3.7 (#78) |
| +0 / -1 | offense / defense | -9 / -5 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →