Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsVT
- Q4 1:30VTIsaiah Ford 14 Yd pass from Mark Leal (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–6
- Q4 4:14MIAGus Edwards 38 Yd Run (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)30–0
- Q2 0:03MIADuke Johnson 22 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)24–0
- Q2 6:21MIADuke Johnson 24 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:11MIAGus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:30MIAMichael Badgley 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBrad Kaaya 7/16, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDuke Johnson 29 CAR, 249 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDuke Johnson 2 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMichael Brewer 13/20, 80 YDS
- RushMarshawn Williams 21 CAR, 100 YDS
- RecSam Rogers 3 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:11MIA +19%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
- Q2 6:21MIA +17%
Duke Johnson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
- Q2 0:03MIA +10%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
- Q1 6:30MIA +8%
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Virginia Tech?
Miami 30, Virginia Tech 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 262 |
| 92 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 364 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 7/16 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 35:08 | Possession | 24:52 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:02 MIA punt on 4th & 5 at VT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:30VTIsaiah Ford 14 Yd pass from Mark Leal (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–6
- Q4 4:14MIAGus Edwards 38 Yd Run (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)30–0
- Q2 0:03MIADuke Johnson 22 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)24–0
- Q2 6:21MIADuke Johnson 24 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:11MIAGus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:30MIAMichael Badgley 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1621, MIA Elo 1618 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -2.5 (58% to win) — 3.5 points clear of VT's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #90 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Miami leads 27–15 · Miami has won 5 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| MIA | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.53 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 1.24 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 34% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →