Fresno State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsNEV
- Q4 10:21FRESTeam Safety 40–20
- Q3 9:29FRESKody Kroening 32 Yd Field Goal 38–20
- Q3 13:04FRESAaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)35–20
- Q2 0:32FRESBrian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)28–20
- Q2 2:06NEVDon Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed)21–20
- Q2 9:06FRESGreg Watson 30 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:23FRESAaron Peck 13 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:01NEVCody Fajardo 60 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:56NEVCody Fajardo 55 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:29FRESJosh Harper 19 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBrian Burrell 25/46, 313 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushJosh Quezada 24 CAR, 119 YDS
- RecGreg Watson 4 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCody Fajardo 11/24, 126 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCody Fajardo 22 CAR, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJerico Richardson 4 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:32FRES +24%
Brian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)
- Q2 9:06FRES +22%
Greg Watson 30 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
- Q3 13:04FRES +21%
Aaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
- Q2 2:06NEV +20%
Don Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed)
- Q1 2:56NEV +19%
Cody Fajardo 55 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)
- Q1 3:29FRES +19%
Josh Harper 19 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Nevada?
Fresno State 40, Nevada 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 551 | Total yards | 353 |
| 313 | Passing yards | 126 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 29 | First downs | 13 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 25/47 | Comp/Att | 11/24 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 7-90 |
| 35:40 | Possession | 29:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:51 FRES punt on 4th & 17 at NEV 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:21FRESTeam Safety 40–20
- Q3 9:29FRESKody Kroening 32 Yd Field Goal 38–20
- Q3 13:04FRESAaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)35–20
- Q2 0:32FRESBrian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)28–20
- Q2 2:06NEVDon Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed)21–20
- Q2 9:06FRESGreg Watson 30 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:23FRESAaron Peck 13 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:01NEVCody Fajardo 60 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:56NEVCody Fajardo 55 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:29FRESJosh Harper 19 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1503, FRES Elo 1318 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV -9.8 (75% to win) — 2.8 points clear of NEV's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #66 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Fresno State leads 19–14 · Fresno State has won 5 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| FRES | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 2.45 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 30% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →