Arizona vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsORE
- Q4 2:54ARIZTerris Jones-Grigsby 1 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)31–24
- Q4 8:21OREKeanon Lowe 9 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)24–24
- Q4 13:26OREMatt Wogan 21 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q3 1:33ARIZNick Wilson 34 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick)24–14
- Q3 6:27ARIZNick Wilson 2 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)17–14
- Q3 9:58OREDevon Allen 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)10–14
- Q3 12:52ARIZNick Wilson 3 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:37OREMarcus Mariota 26 Yd pass from Royce Freeman (Matt Wogan Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:27ARIZCasey Skowron 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassAnu Solomon 20/31, 287 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerris Jones-Grigsby 27 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerris Jones-Grigsby 4 REC, 95 YDS
- PassMarcus Mariota 20/32, 276 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRoyce Freeman 19 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecDevon Allen 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:54ARIZ +45%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q4 8:21ORE +40%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
- Q3 1:33ARIZ +30%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 34 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q3 6:27ARIZ +27%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q3 12:52ARIZ +23%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q3 9:58ORE +23%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Oregon?
Arizona 31, Oregon 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 495 | Total yards | 446 |
| 287 | Passing yards | 302 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 144 |
| 29 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 21/33 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-78 | Penalties | 10-79 |
| 33:32 | Possession | 26:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:12 ARIZ punt on 4th & 4 at ORE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:54ARIZTerris Jones-Grigsby 1 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)31–24
- Q4 8:21OREKeanon Lowe 9 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)24–24
- Q4 13:26OREMatt Wogan 21 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q3 1:33ARIZNick Wilson 34 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick)24–14
- Q3 6:27ARIZNick Wilson 2 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)17–14
- Q3 9:58OREDevon Allen 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)10–14
- Q3 12:52ARIZNick Wilson 3 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:37OREMarcus Mariota 26 Yd pass from Royce Freeman (Matt Wogan Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:27ARIZCasey Skowron 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1880, ARIZ Elo 1685 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -10.2 (76% to win) — 11.3 points clear of ARIZ's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #3 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Oregon leads 29–17 · Oregon has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | points / drive | 3.63 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 15% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →