Northwestern State vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northwestern State1-2

▸0030

Louisiana Tech2-1

0027

Final

Joe Aillet Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	3	7	20	30
LT	10	3	7	7	27

NORTTeam statsLT

307Total yards413

205Pass280

102Rush133

21First downs22

5-153rd down4-12

2Turnovers5

30:11Possession30:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00NORTChris Moore 47 Yd Field Goal 30–27
• Q4 1:05NORTChris Moore 29 Yd Field Goal 27–27
• Q4 4:20NORTDe'Mard Llorens 14 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)24–27
• Q4 8:35LTKenneth Dixon 5 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)17–27
• Q4 13:42NORTGarrett Atzenweiler 10 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)17–20
• Q3 1:04LTKenneth Dixon 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)10–20
• Q3 4:20NORTGarrett Atzenweiler 4 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)10–13
• Q2 0:07LTJonathan Barnes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–13
• Q2 6:15NORTChris Moore 41 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 6:29LTJonathan Barnes 38 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 12:18LTKenneth Dixon 38 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

LT −24

Against the number

NORT covered

line LT −24

What the numbers say

• LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NORT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 6.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LT 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

LT (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

LT −24

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 30 – 27 LT

consensus, liveLT −24

Leaders

Northwestern State

• PassZach Adkins 21/35, 205 YDS, 2 INT
• RushGarrett Atzenweiler 19 CAR, 66 YDS, 2 TD
• RecEd Eagan 6 REC, 70 YDS

Louisiana Tech

• PassCody Sokol 20/34, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
• RushKenneth Dixon 22 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
• RecSterling Griffin 6 REC, 72 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

LT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

14 calls

NORT gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 7/9 · LT 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northwestern State vs. Louisiana Tech?

Northwestern State 30, Louisiana Tech 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

LT

35%

Success rate

45%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.29

0.07

EPA / rush

0.17

33%

Early-down success

48%

34%

Pass success

38%

36%

Rush success

55%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

51%

Pass rate

56%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

10.6

NORT

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

LT

10.6 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		LT
307	Total yards	413
205	Passing yards	280
102	Rushing yards	133
21	First downs	22
5-15	3rd down	4-12
2-2	4th down	1-1
21/35	Comp/Att	20/34
5.9	Yards per pass	8.2
2.7	Yards per rush	4.0
2	Turnovers	5
3-30	Penalties	8-74
30:11	Possession	30:38

Fourth downs

14 calls

NORT

7/9 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

LT

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 15:00 NORT punt on 4th & 9 at LT 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 5/11 scoring drives

LTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

LTFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 31Q1

NORTINT5 pl, 15 yds· opp 47Q1

LTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q1

NORTPUNT9 pl, 33 yds· own 14Q1

LTINT8 pl, 52 yds· own 5Q2

NORTFG9 pl, 47 yds· own 29Q2

LTFG13 pl, 66 yds· own 7Q2

NORTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT8 pl, 40 yds· own 26Q3

LTINT7 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q3

NORTTD12 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3

LTTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q3

NORTTD2 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q4

LTPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 30Q4

NORTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q4

LTTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q4

NORTTD10 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4

LTFUM3 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q4

NORTFG6 pl, 23 yds· opp 35Q4

LTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4

NORTFG5 pl, 21 yds· own 49Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00NORTChris Moore 47 Yd Field Goal 30–27
• Q4 1:05NORTChris Moore 29 Yd Field Goal 27–27
• Q4 4:20NORTDe'Mard Llorens 14 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)24–27
• Q4 8:35LTKenneth Dixon 5 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)17–27
• Q4 13:42NORTGarrett Atzenweiler 10 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)17–20
• Q3 1:04LTKenneth Dixon 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)10–20
• Q3 4:20NORTGarrett Atzenweiler 4 Yd Run (Chris Moore Kick)10–13
• Q2 0:07LTJonathan Barnes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–13
• Q2 6:15NORTChris Moore 41 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 6:29LTJonathan Barnes 38 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 12:18LTKenneth Dixon 38 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Northwestern State were +24 — a 7% shot

#35 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #1 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.

The 2014 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →