Maryland vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsIU
- Q4 5:56MDBrad Craddock 48 Yd Field Goal 37–15
- Q4 9:29IUTevin Coleman 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–15
- Q4 13:03MDJuwann Winfree 30 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick)34–9
- Q3 8:00MDBrandon Ross 36 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick)27–9
- Q2 0:00IUGriffin Oakes 58 Yd Field Goal 20–9
- Q2 2:09MDBrad Craddock 30 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 8:50MDStefon Diggs 29 Yd pass from C.J. Brown (Brad Craddock Kick)17–6
- Q2 9:49IUGriffin Oakes 48 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 12:01MDC.J. Brown 5 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)10–3
- Q1 3:00IUGriffin Oakes 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:12MDBrad Craddock 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MD ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassCaleb Rowe 12/18, 198 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrandon Ross 6 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecStefon Diggs 6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNate Sudfeld 14/37, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTevin Coleman 22 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNick Stoner 4 REC, 40 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Indiana?
Maryland 37, Indiana 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| MD | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 484 | Total yards | 332 |
| 361 | Passing yards | 126 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 206 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 9-19 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 14/37 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-83 | Penalties | 9-55 |
| 31:39 | Possession | 28:21 |
- Q4 5:56MDBrad Craddock 48 Yd Field Goal 37–15
- Q4 9:29IUTevin Coleman 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–15
- Q4 13:03MDJuwann Winfree 30 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick)34–9
- Q3 8:00MDBrandon Ross 36 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick)27–9
- Q2 0:00IUGriffin Oakes 58 Yd Field Goal 20–9
- Q2 2:09MDBrad Craddock 30 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 8:50MDStefon Diggs 29 Yd pass from C.J. Brown (Brad Craddock Kick)17–6
- Q2 9:49IUGriffin Oakes 48 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 12:01MDC.J. Brown 5 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)10–3
- Q1 3:00IUGriffin Oakes 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:12MDBrad Craddock 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1503, MD Elo 1620 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU +2.3 (45% to win) — 5.3 points clear of MD's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #83 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Indiana leads 9–5 · Indiana has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| MD | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.17 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →