Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsUNT
- Q4 0:34UNTErick Evans 9 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)42–21
- Q4 3:38UNTAntoinne Jimmerson 3 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)42–14
- Q4 12:59LTTrent Taylor 12 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)42–7
- Q3 1:46LTPaul Turner 21 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)35–7
- Q3 4:15UNTJosh Greer 5 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)28–7
- Q3 7:22LTKenneth Dixon 2 Yd Run (Kyle Fischer Kick)28–0
- Q2 2:32LTPaul Turner 5 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)21–0
- Q2 7:45LTHunter Lee 28 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)14–0
- Q2 10:55LTJosh Gaston 4 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCody Sokol 20/31, 243 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenneth Dixon 19 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Taylor 5 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDajon Williams 5/7, 98 YDS
- RushErick Evans 9 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTurner Smiley 2 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:55LT +23%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Josh Gaston for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
- Q2 7:45LT +22%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
- Q2 2:32LT +17%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
- Q3 7:22LT +8%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
- Q3 1:46LT +5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas?
Louisiana Tech 42, North Texas 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Total yards | 279 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 104 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 18/34 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-73 | Penalties | 9-90 |
| 29:21 | Possession | 32:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:54 LT field goal on 4th & 1 at UNT 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:34UNTErick Evans 9 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)42–21
- Q4 3:38UNTAntoinne Jimmerson 3 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)42–14
- Q4 12:59LTTrent Taylor 12 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)42–7
- Q3 1:46LTPaul Turner 21 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)35–7
- Q3 4:15UNTJosh Greer 5 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)28–7
- Q3 7:22LTKenneth Dixon 2 Yd Run (Kyle Fischer Kick)28–0
- Q2 2:32LTPaul Turner 5 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)21–0
- Q2 7:45LTHunter Lee 28 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)14–0
- Q2 10:55LTJosh Gaston 4 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Kyle Fischer Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1610, LT Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -11.2 (78% to win) — 7.7 points clear of UNT's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #76 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Louisiana Tech leads 9–8 · North Texas has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| LT | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.49 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →