Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsUL
- Q4 0:00ULGabe Fuselier 4 Yd pass from Brooks Haack 48–20
- Q4 4:56LTJarred Craft 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)48–14
- Q4 9:34ULEffrem Reed 20 Yd pass from Terrance Broadway (Hunter Stover Kick)41–14
- Q4 11:03LTJonathan Barnes 42 Yd Field Goal 41–7
- Q4 13:32LTKenneth Dixon 32 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)38–7
- Q3 3:45LTXavier Woods 46 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Barnes Kick)31–7
- Q3 14:11LTSterling Griffin 78 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–7
- Q2 0:10LTJonathan Barnes 28 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:33LTHunter Lee 16 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:54ULAlonzo Harris 6 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:25LTKenneth Dixon 99 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassCody Sokol 22/33, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKenneth Dixon 12 CAR, 184 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSterling Griffin 3 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTerrance Broadway 19/31, 150 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerrance Broadway 13 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecGabe Fuselier 6 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:33LT +24%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
- Q1 4:25LT +20%
Kenneth Dixon run for 99 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
- Q2 14:54UL +18%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
- Q3 14:11LT +17%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 78 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
- Q2 0:10LT +11%
Jonathan Barnes 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:45LT +6%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana?
Louisiana Tech 48, Louisiana 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 533 | Total yards | 415 |
| 295 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 29/44 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-36 |
| 29:14 | Possession | 30:46 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:23 UL punt on 4th & 8 at LT 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00ULGabe Fuselier 4 Yd pass from Brooks Haack 48–20
- Q4 4:56LTJarred Craft 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)48–14
- Q4 9:34ULEffrem Reed 20 Yd pass from Terrance Broadway (Hunter Stover Kick)41–14
- Q4 11:03LTJonathan Barnes 42 Yd Field Goal 41–7
- Q4 13:32LTKenneth Dixon 32 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)38–7
- Q3 3:45LTXavier Woods 46 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Barnes Kick)31–7
- Q3 14:11LTSterling Griffin 78 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–7
- Q2 0:10LTJonathan Barnes 28 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:33LTHunter Lee 16 Yd pass from Cody Sokol (Jonathan Barnes Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:54ULAlonzo Harris 6 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:25LTKenneth Dixon 99 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1445, LT Elo 1292 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -8.5 (72% to win) — 7.5 points clear of LT's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #12 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Louisiana Tech leads 18–10–3 · Louisiana Tech has won 8 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| LT | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.49 | points / drive | 2.20 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 26% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →