Hawai'i vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 9:55HAWTyler Hadden 32 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 0:18HAWJoey Iosefa 1 Yd Run (Tyler Hadden Kick)10–0
- Q2 13:03HAWTyler Hadden 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SJSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassIkaika Woolsey 9/16, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJoey Iosefa 26 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecScott Harding 3 REC, 54 YDS
- PassJoe Gray 25/45, 305 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTyler Ervin 19 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecTim Crawley 5 REC, 97 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:18HAW +25%
Joey Iosefa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Hadden KICK)
- Q4 13:44HAW +10%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa, broken up by Garrett Guanella
- Q2 13:03HAW +9%
Tyler Hadden 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:14HAW +7%
Scott Harding punt for 47 yds, Tim Crawley returns for 1 yd to the SJSt 19
- Q3 3:54HAW +6%
Marrell Jackson sacked by Maurice McKnight for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 9
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. San José State?
Hawai'i 13, San José State 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 462 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 11 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 12-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 25/45 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 29:15 | Possession | 33:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:05 SJSU field goal on 4th & 2 at HAW 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:55HAWTyler Hadden 32 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 0:18HAWJoey Iosefa 1 Yd Run (Tyler Hadden Kick)10–0
- Q2 13:03HAWTyler Hadden 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1318, HAW Elo 1238 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -5.6 (66% to win) — 4.4 points clear of HAW's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #41 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →San José State leads 22–21–1 · San José State has won 5 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| HAW | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | points / drive | 1.31 |
| 2.11 | allowed / drive | 2.52 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →