Wyoming vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsFRES
- Q4 1:25FRESAaron Peck 7 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)45–17
- Q4 3:57WYOStuart Williams 22 Yd Field Goal 45–10
- Q4 6:46WYOJoshua Tapscott 48 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)42–10
- Q4 7:02WYOJacob Hollister 66 Yd pass from Colby Kirkegaard (Stuart Williams Kick)35–10
- Q4 12:14WYOJoshua Tapscott 2 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)28–10
- Q2 0:46FRESKody Kroening 28 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 9:33WYOBrian Hill 66 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:49WYOJake Maulhardt 16 Yd pass from Colby Kirkegaard (Stuart Williams Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28WYOBrian Hill 32 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11FRESMarteze Waller 8 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassColby Kirkegaard 19/28, 320 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrian Hill 23 CAR, 281 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrian Hill 3 REC, 106 YDS
- PassBrian Burrell 7/13, 94 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMarteze Waller 18 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAaron Peck 3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:49WYO +21%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 16 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
- Q2 9:33WYO +20%
Brian Hill run for 66 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
- Q4 12:14WYO +15%
Joshua Tapscott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
- Q3 1:00WYO +14%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 46
- Q1 8:28WYO +14%
Brian Hill run for 32 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
- Q1 13:11FRES +13%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Fresno State?
Wyoming 45, Fresno State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 694 | Total yards | 316 |
| 320 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 374 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 24 | First downs | 16 |
| 10-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 14/29 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 8.7 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-64 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 36:41 | Possession | 22:38 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:44 WYO punt on 4th & 6 at FRES 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:25FRESAaron Peck 7 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)45–17
- Q4 3:57WYOStuart Williams 22 Yd Field Goal 45–10
- Q4 6:46WYOJoshua Tapscott 48 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)42–10
- Q4 7:02WYOJacob Hollister 66 Yd pass from Colby Kirkegaard (Stuart Williams Kick)35–10
- Q4 12:14WYOJoshua Tapscott 2 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)28–10
- Q2 0:46FRESKody Kroening 28 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 9:33WYOBrian Hill 66 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:49WYOJake Maulhardt 16 Yd pass from Colby Kirkegaard (Stuart Williams Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28WYOBrian Hill 32 Yd Run (Stuart Williams Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11FRESMarteze Waller 8 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1384, WYO Elo 1208 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -9.4 (74% to win) — 4.6 points clear of WYO's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #35 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Fresno State leads 10–6 · 25% have been one-possession games
| WYO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.71 | allowed / drive | 2.45 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 35% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →