Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUNT
- Q4 3:29UNTJarrod Lynn 3 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)10–31
- Q4 10:13UNTTrevor Moore 18 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 4:32FAUAlex Deleon 34 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:06UNTAndrew McNulty 4 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)3–21
- Q2 13:27UNTMarcus Smith 20 Yd pass from Andrew McNulty (Trevor Moore Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:42FAUGreg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:25UNTAntoinne Jimmerson 41 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FAU ahead, below = UNT ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJaquez Johnson 14/25, 99 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeremy Gaskins 10 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecAlex Deleon 2 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAndrew McNulty 12/16, 107 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAntoinne Jimmerson 17 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarlos Harris 6 REC, 41 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?
Florida Atlantic 10, North Texas 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| FAU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Total yards | 342 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 107 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 12 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/31 | Comp/Att | 13/17 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 28:15 | Possession | 44:23 |
- Q4 3:29UNTJarrod Lynn 3 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)10–31
- Q4 10:13UNTTrevor Moore 18 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 4:32FAUAlex Deleon 34 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:06UNTAndrew McNulty 4 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)3–21
- Q2 13:27UNTMarcus Smith 20 Yd pass from Andrew McNulty (Trevor Moore Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:42FAUGreg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:25UNTAntoinne Jimmerson 41 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1253, FAU Elo 1273 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -1.6 (55% to win) — 4.6 points clear of UNT's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #79 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Florida Atlantic leads 8–7 · North Texas has won 3 straight · 53% have been one-possession games
| FAU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →