#9Zach Abey

WR·Navy·2018 2017 20162.1 pts line value1st Round

Zach Abey is a 3-year Vertical Threat WR for Navy. Zach's 2018 season ranks in the 67th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 138 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Abey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

12/29 Comp/Att246 Pass yards1 Pass TD2 INT41.4% Comp %

Rushing

306 Rush yards14 Rush TD125 Carries2.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions37 Rec yards1 Rec TD37.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume60
Explosiveness100
Consistency51
Pass-Down21

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency51th %ile · average

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.70 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.29 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
James Graham	Georgia Tech	2019	91	0.280	1.7	25.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Hawai'i	L41-59	-10.4	—	—	—	—	—	1.29
2	vsMemphis	W22-21	9.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.52
3	vsLehigh	W51-21	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.35
4	@SMU	L30-31	-5.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.51
8	vsHouston	L36-49	2.3	—	—	—	—	—	0.94
9	vsNotre Dame	L22-44	20.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.23
10	@Cincinnati	L0-42	5.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.27
11	@UCF	L24-35	16.5	—	—	—	—	—	-0.05
12	vsTulsa	W37-29	-11.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.48
13	@Tulane	L28-29	-3.5	1	37	37.0	1	37	0.50
15	vsArmy	L10-17	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	-0.53

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.9%

Passing plays

32.0%

Rushing plays

19.0%

Standard downs

22.3%

Passing downs

17.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.09
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.04 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Navy	0.8	0.370	—	25.9
2017	Navy	2.9	0.370	—	101.8
2018	Navy	2.1	0.370	—	46.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.