#5Shai Werts

WR·Georgia Southern·2020 2019 2018 20172.3 pts line value1st Round

Shai Werts is a 4-year Slot Specialist WR for Georgia Southern. Shai's 2018 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 270 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shai Werts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

69/116 Comp/Att987 Pass yards10 Pass TD0 INT59.5% Comp %

Rushing

901 Rush yards15 Rush TD181 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts40 Punt yards40.0 Yards/punt40 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs WR peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Explosiveness67
Consistency71
Pass-Down93

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.11 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	vsSouth Carolina State	W37-6	—	0.54	0.14	0.66
2	vsMassachusetts	W34-13	-16.1	0.88	1.54	0.46
3	@Clemson	L7-38	29.7	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01
5	vsArkansas State	W28-21	1.2	0.38	1.53	0.16
6	vsSouth Alabama	W48-13	-17.7	—	—	—
7	@Texas State	W15-13	-16.4	-0.19	-0.28	-0.06
8	@New Mexico State	W48-31	-20.2	1.11	0.63	1.59
9	vsApp State	W34-14	11.9	0.57	1.02	0.47
10	@UL Monroe	L25-44	-10.9	0.00	-0.11	0.32
11	vsTroy	L21-35	2.6	0.28	0.41	0.01
12	@Coastal Carolina	W41-17	-17.2	0.22	-0.02	0.47
13	@Georgia State	W35-14	-20.4	0.31	0.34	0.29
1	vsEastern Michigan	W23-21	-2.0	0.31	0.16	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

38.4%

Passing plays

99.2%

Rushing plays

26.3%

Standard downs

30.1%

Passing downs

58.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 45 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Georgia Southern	0.0	0.150	—	24.2
2018	Georgia Southern	2.3	0.360	+0.21	51.8
2019	Georgia Southern	1.9	0.210	-0.15	32.1
2020	Georgia Southern	1.0	0.310	+0.10	39.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.