#2TJ Finley

QB·Western Kentucky·2024 2023

TJ Finley is a Clutch Passer for Western Kentucky. TJ's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 83 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So TJ Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

48/75 Comp/Att490 Pass yards1 Pass TD2 INT64.0% Comp %

Rushing

20 Rush yards0 Rush TD11 Carries1.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency57
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -24).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	@Alabama	L0-63	25.0	18/31	92	0	2	23.1	17	-0.17
2	vsEastern Kentucky	W31-0	—	27/39	351	1	0	50.4	13	0.28
3	@Middle Tennessee	W49-21	-24.4	3/5	47	0	0	80.5	-10	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.5%

Passing plays

64.7%

Rushing plays

12.3%

Standard downs

36.7%

Passing downs

59.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.09
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / -0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.