@ Indiana · Wk 3Win prob 2%Model +31.0Schedule & Results
NEVNevadaL14-49✗Wk 2@
UGAGeorgiaL20-70✓Wk 3@IUIndiana+31.02%Wk 4vsMERCMercyhurstWk 5@
NMSUNew Mexico State-9.273%Wk 6vs
MOSTMissouri State-7.268%Wk 7@
SHSUSam Houston-10.574%Wk 9vs
DELDelaware0.050%Wk 10@
MTSUMiddle Tennessee-8.871%Wk 11vs
JXSTJacksonville State-8.771%Wk 12@
LIBLiberty+1.546%Wk 13vs
KENNKennesaw State-10.374%Team Leaders
Rodney Tisdale Jr.Passing234 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
Ajay AllenRushing121 yds · 2 TD · 3.8 avg
Cameron FlowersReceiving8 rec · 74 yds · 0 TD
Jaylen LewisTackles13 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Western Kentucky
All news →Nothing has changed since Georgia won this 48-12
Carter Jones produced four of Nevada's eight explosive plays
Four Points Apart at Mackay Stadium, on a Projection With Zero 2026 Games
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rodney Tisdale Jr. | QB | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | Caleb McMickle | QB | JR | 6'2" | 194 | Roswell, GA |
| 11 | Brock Glenn | QB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Covington, TN |
| 15 | Cam O'Hara | QB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Florence, KY |
| 3 | Ajay Allen | RB | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Monroe, LA |
| 9 | Kalib Hicks | RB | JR | 5'11" | 220 | Denton, TX |
| 22 | Le'Kamren Meadows | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Moody, AL |
| 23 | Sincere Baines | RB | SR | 5'9" | 195 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 25 | Jaden McGill | RB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Chicago, IL |
| 29 | Adrion Boyd | RB | JR | 5'7" | 185 | Fontana, CA |
| 2 | K.D. Hutchinson | WR | SR | 5'8" | 185 | Hamilton, GA |
| 4 | Cameron Flowers | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 7 | Qua'Vez Humphreys | WR | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Junction City, KS |
| 8 | Moussa Barry | WR | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Dacula, GA |
| 12 | Quincy Burroughs | WR | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 13 | Jyziah Rockwell | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Gilmer, TX |
| 17 | Zion Taylor | WR | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Norcross, GA |
| 18 | Devin Hamilton | WR | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Dacula, GA |
| 21 | Nigel Johnson | WR | SR | 6'5" | 200 | Sumter, SC |
| 24 | Fonzy Smith | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 80 | Jonathan Stafford Jr. | WR | FR | 5'9" | 185 | Auburn, GA |
| 82 | Tre'Von Mcgory | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Memphis, TN |
| 84 | Jeremiah Carroll | WR | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Atlanta, GA |
| 14 | CC Ezirim | TE | SR | 6'7" | 250 | Dublin, OH |
| 19 | Lofton Howard | TE | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Bowling Green, KY |
| 44 | Griffin Reimer | TE | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Matthews, NC |
| 81 | Arlando Crafton Jr. | TE | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Atlanta, GA |
| 86 | Eli Wilt | TE | FR | 6'6" | 250 | Nashville, TN |
| 87 | Coleson Arends | TE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 88 | Aiden Miller | TE | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Glasgow, KY |
| 89 | Cross Nimmo | TE | FR | 6'5" | 250 | Mentor, OH |
| 50 | Alec Johnson | OL | SR | 6'1" | 295 | Columbia, SC |
| 52 | Isiah Stoudemire | OL | FR | 6'3" | 312 | Dayton, OH |
| 55 | Roq Montgomery | OL | JR | 6'3" | 365 | Anniston, AL |
| 56 | Tyrell Scott | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 59 | Alex Lopez | OL | FR | 6'7" | 310 | Cleveland, MS |
| 64 | Jackson Dialls | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Lexington, KY |
| 67 | Tai Ray | OL | JR | 6'7" | 330 | Apopka, FL |
| 69 | Jordan Curll | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Franklin, TN |
| 70 | Rhett Larson | OL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | College Station, TX |
| 72 | Zach Clayton | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Senoia, GA |
| 73 | Nonso Omezi | OL | SR | 6'5" | 340 | Houston, TX |
| 74 | Karsten Upchurch | OL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Starkville, MS |
| 75 | Brody Riffe | OL | JR | 6'8" | 315 | Ocoee, FL |
| 76 | Max Thurston | OL | SO | 6'5" | 300 | Monroe, GA |
| 77 | Jamier Smith | OL | FR | 6'3" | 298 | Riverdale, GA |
| 78 | Tyreek Major | OL | SO | 6'5" | 325 | Tampa, FL |
| 79 | Asa Holbert | OL | FR | 6'6" | 290 | Centre, AL |
| 13 | Latrevion Thompson | DE | SR | 6'3" | 248 | Kennett, MO |
| 16 | Darius Hampton | DE | SR | 6'3" | 238 | Del City, OK |
| 17 | Zsacari Minnis | DE | SO | 6'3" | 238 | Eustis, FL |
| 41 | Brandon Thomas | DE | FR | 6'4" | 224 | Miami, FL |
| 45 | Josaiah Knight | DE | SO | 6'3" | 238 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 50 | Elin Jones | DE | SR | 6'4" | 248 | Dacula, GA |
| 55 | Venson Sneed | DE | SR | 6'4" | 268 | Wabasso, FL |
| 57 | Isaac Tanis | DE | FR | 6'2" | 228 | Hollywood, FL |
| 59 | Sharlandiin Strange | DE | FR | 6'4" | 244 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 90 | Bryce Fulda | DE | FR | 6'4" | 244 | Bradenton, FL |
| 94 | Henry Smith | DE | FR | 6'3" | 254 | Moody, AL |
| 98 | Nathan Gonzales | DE | SR | 6'4" | 248 | Bell Gardens, CA |
| 0 | Mackavelli Malotumau | DL | SR | 6'1" | 295 | Oceanside, CA |
| 93 | Rylen Su'a-Filo | DL | SR | 6'1" | 320 | Orem, UT |
| 33 | Zeiqui Lawton | DT | SR | 6'2" | 290 | Charleston, WV |
| 51 | Zayden Walters | DT | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 52 | Jakeem Fletcher | DT | SR | 6'2" | 315 | Tanner, AL |
| 53 | Elijah Peake | DT | FR | 6'1" | 325 | Wetumpka, AL |
| 54 | Sekou Peters | DT | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Atlanta, GA |
| 56 | Kiawan Murphy | DT | SR | 6'2" | 320 | East Hartford, CT |
| 91 | Ceejay Embry | DT | FR | 6'1" | 280 | Pahokee, FL |
| 92 | Javin Griffin | DT | SR | 6'2" | 320 | Saint Martinville, LA |
| 99 | Eric Etienne | DT | SO | 6'1" | 305 | Miramar, FL |
| 15 | Garrison Madden | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Hampton, GA |
| 18 | Geajorm Akpaloo | LB | JR | 6'1" | 230 | Warrenton, VA |
| 20 | Zach Smith | LB | SO | 6'0" | 224 | Red Oak, TX |
| 21 | Jaylen Wester | LB | SR | 6'0" | 228 | Palmetto, FL |
| 22 | Jordan Donald | LB | SO | 6'2" | 224 | Perry, GA |
| 29 | Joshua Mensah | LB | SR | 6'1" | 218 | Riverdale, GA |
| 32 | Westen Ard | LB | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 34 | Makhi Brazier | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Loganville, GA |
| 35 | Elijah Rumph | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Eden Prairie, MN |
| 44 | Kai Micatrotto | LB | FR | 5'11" | 238 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 2 | Tony Newsome Jr. | DB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Apopka, FL |
| 3 | Christian White | DB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 5 | Dave Herard | DB | SR | 6'0" | 204 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 6 | Justin Brown | DB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 7 | Jaylen Lewis | DB | SR | 5'11" | 187 | Brownsville, TN |
| 8 | D'Cambren Verrett | DB | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Houston, TX |
| 10 | Xavion Griffin | DB | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 11 | Canyon Moses | DB | JR | 5'10" | 198 | Midland, TX |
| 12 | BJ Carey | DB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Downey, CA |
| 14 | Braxton Myers | DB | JR | 6'1" | 203 | Coppell, TX |
| 19 | Jacob Cosby-Mosley | DB | SO | 5'11" | 200 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 23 | PJ Souffrant | DB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 24 | Lataj Wright | DB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 26 | Leonzay Merzius | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 27 | Jordan Bergeron | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Naples, FL |
| 30 | Taron Essex | DB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Decatur, GA |
| 31 | Walter Manning | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Pembroke Pines, FL |
| 36 | Khrystian Washington | DB | JR | 6'0" | 182 | Louisville, KY |
| 38 | Alan Gbee | DB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Leesburg, VA |
| 39 | Jaylen Pollard | DB | FR | 5'11" | 208 | Brentwood, TN |
| 33 | Michael Smith | PK | SO | 5'6" | 172 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 43 | Jackson Smith | PK | SR | 5'10" | 215 | Danville, KY |
| 58 | Michael Buck | PK | SO | 5'10" | 177 | Mooresville, NC |
| 99 | Karl Campbell | PK | FR | 6'5" | 225 | Magherafelt |
| 35 | Daniel Wall | P | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Brighton East, VIC |
| 40 | Carson Perusse | LS | JR | 5'11" | 213 | Wellington, FL |
| 44 | Bailey Sanders | LS | SO | 5'11" | 223 | Mooresville, NC |
| 49 | Nolan Imhoff | LS | JR | 5'11" | 233 | Frederic, WI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Western Kentucky throws it: Tyson Helton's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 7 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 26th at turning trips inside the 40 into points. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Western Kentucky has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#26projected
- Defensefirst and second down#27projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.40#117
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.63 / 0.79
- Power / stuff (off)
- 55.6% / 27.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.7%#123
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.3% / 2.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.03#99 | -0.31#130 | 0.19#115 |
| Defense | 0.61#138 | 0.62#131 | 1.80#138 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0722nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.564th
- Offense success rate44%46th
- Defense success rate allowed51%12th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%50th
- Offense success — passing downs32%47th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs51%20th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs50%7th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.904th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.65th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8316th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.17th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.045th
- Defense line yards allowed3.57th
- Offense highlight yards0.7642nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed3.14th
- Offense power success0.6738th
- Defense power success allowed0.8628th
- Offense stuff rate0.2032nd
- Defense stuff rate0.1945th
Third down
- Third down conversion38%34th
- Third down distance faced8.312th
- Third down conversion allowed50%21st
- Third down distance forced6.736th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0332nd
- Net success rate — second half-0.1119th
Drives
- Points per drive1.331st
- Points per drive allowed4.59th
- Average starting field position2422nd
- Opponent starting field position3414th
- Available yards gained40%27th
- Available yards allowed69%15th
- Scoring opportunities per drive55%8th
- Scoring opportunities allowed91%27th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.342nd
- Points allowed per opportunity4.910th
- Three-and-out rate36%27th
- Three-and-outs forced18%34th
Roster
- Returning usage78%91st
- Returning EPA31299th
- Team talent composite61237th
- Recruiting class rank81.042nd
- Recruiting class points18542nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.330 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.4%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.4%
- Over expected
- +3.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- -67
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Western Kentucky is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Western Kentucky in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 8-6 | 6-3 | 57% | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 9-5 | 6-2 | 64% | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 9-5 | 7-2 | 64% | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 5-7 | 4-3 | 42% | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 2017 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 4.8 | +1.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.5-6.7. Wins the Conference USA in 8.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.4 points since preseason — lost 14-49 to Nevada against an expected margin of +2, so −37.0 against the number.
- The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
Conference USA
0-0 in league play, projected 4.4-3.65 of 10 by title oddsThe Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk3Western Kentucky at Indiana22.6
- wk2Western Kentucky at Georgia20.6
- wk12Western Kentucky at Liberty19.5
- wk13Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky12.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →
If not the playoff, then
Western Kentucky is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Hawai'i Bowl14%
- New Orleans Bowl12%
- 68 Ventures Bowl8.7%
- Armed Forces Bowl6.1%
- Boca Raton Bowl3.3%
- Xbox Bowl2.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Western Kentucky a player since 2010 — 7 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Western Kentucky's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.