vs Ohio · Wk 3Win prob 38%Model +4.6Schedule & Results
TULNTulaneL24-28✓Wk 3vsOHIOOhio+4.638%Wk 4@
UKKentucky+14.219%Wk 5vs
ULMUL Monroe-10.274%Wk 6@
ARSTArkansas State+1.147%Wk 8@
MRSHMarshall+15.716%Wk 9vs
LTLouisiana Tech+1.447%Wk 10@
ULLouisiana+6.634%Wk 11vs
TROYTroy-3.359%Wk 12@
USMSouthern Miss+12.122%Wk 13vs
APPApp State-4.260%Team Leaders
Bishop DavenportPassing450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
PJ MartinRushing142 yds · 2 TD · 4.3 avg
Brendan JenkinsReceiving14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD
Cole BlaylockTackles12 tackles · 2.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on South Alabama
All news →South Alabama's coverage is the worst draw Tulane could have
South Alabama routs SE Louisiana, 39-14
Roster · 116 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bishop Davenport | QB | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Spring, TX |
| 7 | Jared Hollins | QB | JR | 6'4" | 210 | Semmes, AL |
| 15 | Taylor Jacobs Jr. | QB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 16 | Aaden Shamburger | QB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Mobile, AL |
| 18 | Jerry Horne | QB | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Denham Springs, LA |
| 0 | PJ Martin | RB | SR | 5'10" | 205 | New Orleans, LA |
| 3 | Keenan Phillips | RB | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Bainbridge, GA |
| 17 | Anthony Jeffery | RB | SO | 5'8" | 190 | Thomson, GA |
| 20 | Lavonte Cole | RB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Thomasville, GA |
| 21 | Trae'von Dunbar | RB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Graniteville, SC |
| 22 | Caleb Wynn | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Anniston, AL |
| 24 | Julyon Jordan | RB | SO | 5'9" | 180 | Guntersville, AL |
| 26 | Donovan Crow | RB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Phenix City, AL |
| 1 | Anthony Eager | WR | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Mobile, AL |
| 2 | Jeremiah Jones-Thomas | WR | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Crawfordville, FL |
| 6 | Micah Woods | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Pinson, AL |
| 8 | Noah Toster | WR | SR | 6'4" | 200 | Apex, NC |
| 10 | Khatori Marion | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Mobile, AL |
| 11 | Trae Stevenson | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Madison, MS |
| 12 | Brendan Jenkins | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Hoschton, GA |
| 13 | Jarvis Washington Jr. | WR | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 19 | Jerrian Graham | WR | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Prichard, AL |
| 23 | Dominic White | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Adamsville, AL |
| 27 | Tylen Campbell | WR | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Jackson, AL |
| 81 | Miguel Camboia | WR | SR | 5'9" | 175 | Mobile, AL |
| 85 | Brian Barnes | WR | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Pascagoula, MS |
| 89 | Brandon Nolan | WR | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Elberta, AK |
| 9 | Rod Gibbs | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Atlanta, GA |
| 14 | Maddox Lynch | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 34 | Cam McFarlin | TE | JR | 6'4" | 240 | Hoover, AL |
| 82 | Julius Mathis | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Lexington, MS |
| 83 | Everett Hunter | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Manteca, CA |
| 84 | Nate Forystek | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Green Bay, WI |
| 87 | Jordan Morris | TE | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Apache Junction, AZ |
| 88 | Owen Carlson | TE | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Chelsea, AL |
| 51 | Diego Camboia | OL | SR | 6'5" | 265 | Mobile, AL |
| 52 | Andre Woods | OL | JR | 6'3" | 330 | Montgomery, AL |
| 56 | Naol Andarge | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Fairfax, VA |
| 57 | Shalik Hubbard | OL | SR | 6'4" | 330 | Patterson, NJ |
| 58 | Cam'Ron Thompson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 330 | Savannah, GA |
| 60 | Devon Waller | OL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | Detroit, MI |
| 61 | Julius Kidd | OL | SR | 6'2" | 260 | Mobile, AL |
| 62 | Kyle Greak | OL | FR | 6'2" | 293 | Orange Beach, AL |
| 64 | Jamal Siler | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Elba, AL |
| 66 | Devin White | OL | SO | 6'2" | 280 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 67 | Artem Korchagin Jr. | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Moscow |
| 68 | Reese Osei-Wusu | OL | SR | 6'4" | 310 | Cypress, TX |
| 69 | Kenton Jerido | OL | SR | 6'3" | 340 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 70 | Elliott Chaney | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Oxford, MS |
| 71 | Jaylen Booker | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 72 | Ethan Hubbard | OL | SR | 6'6" | 295 | Hoover, AL |
| 73 | Jamal Scott | OL | FR | 5'11" | 230 | Saint Francisville, LA |
| 74 | Aydan Newell | OL | FR | 6'3" | 315 | Brandon, MS |
| 77 | Kearius Bivens | OL | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Chatom, AL |
| 79 | Eric Mahan | OL | FR | 6'3" | 402 | Spanish Fort, AL |
| 9 | Emmanuel Waller | DL | SR | 6'3" | 275 | Birmingham, AL |
| 18 | Mase Lewis | DL | SR | 6'3" | 275 | Breaux Bridge, LA |
| 39 | Rodney Hunter | DL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Memphis, TN |
| 41 | Tyler Carter | DL | JR | 6'4" | 290 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 49 | Tre Brown | DL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Natchitoches, LA |
| 56 | Stephen Johnson | DL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Fayetteville, GA |
| 75 | Tyler Wiley | DL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Oxford, MS |
| 80 | Brayden Hurst | DL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 85 | Andrew Washburn | DL | SR | 6'2" | 270 | Mooresville, NC |
| 90 | E'Mauri Smiley | DL | SO | 6'1" | 265 | Opelika, AL |
| 93 | Jeremiah Waldrond | DL | SR | 6'2" | 275 | Fuquay Varina, NC |
| 94 | Andrew Hines | DL | SO | 6'3" | 285 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 0 | Parker Shattuck | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | LaGrange, GA |
| 6 | Kaydon Degraffenreid | LB | SR | 6'0" | 225 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | William Felton IV | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Pelham, AL |
| 16 | Seidrion Langston | LB | SR | 6'1" | 220 | Lanett, AL |
| 17 | Christian Ross | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Teaneck, NJ |
| 20 | Tirrell Johnson | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Wynne, AR |
| 22 | Caleb Dozier | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Dothan, AL |
| 25 | Tre'Mon Henry | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Columbus, GA |
| 26 | Xavious Anderson Jr. | LB | FR | 6'0" | 225 | Hogansville, GA |
| 27 | Zechariah Hall | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Sylvester, GA |
| 30 | Perry Hand | LB | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Mobile, AL |
| 33 | Tyray Darensburg | LB | FR | 5'11" | 225 | Chalmette, LA |
| 42 | Dylan Chiedo | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 43 | Jacob Porco | LB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Birmingham, AL |
| 44 | Donnie Arnold | LB | SO | 5'11" | 235 | Deatsville, AL |
| 45 | Demetress Mosley | LB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Pensacola, FL |
| 46 | Terry Kirksey Jr. | LB | SR | 6'2" | 245 | Theodore, AL |
| 48 | Jordan Williams | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Metairie, LA |
| 53 | Latrelle Lett | LB | SO | 5'8" | 235 | Mobile, AL |
| 3 | Tre Webb III | CB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | New Orleans, LA |
| 7 | Deuce Vance | CB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 12 | Jaylen Moson | CB | SR | 5'11" | 175 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 15 | Colby Williams | CB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Plainfield, IL |
| 19 | TJ Collier | CB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Mobile, AL |
| 23 | Cube Gurley | CB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | New Orleans, LA |
| 24 | Damyrion Darby | CB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Bassfield, MS |
| 34 | Bradley Thomas | CB | SR | 5'11" | 175 | Montgomery, AL |
| 37 | Evan Jones | CB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Arab, AL |
| 1 | D.J. Moore | S | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Loganville, GA |
| 2 | Jayvon Henderson | S | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Auburn, GA |
| 4 | Kohl Bradley | S | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Lucedale, MS |
| 8 | Dallas Young | S | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Gardendale, AL |
| 13 | Kam Robinson | S | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Winona, MS |
| 14 | Cole Blaylock | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Mobile, AL |
| 21 | Deon Callins | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Birmingham, AL |
| 28 | Tomareo Johnson Jr. | S | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Pascagoula, MS |
| 29 | Kaleb Jackson | S | SR | 5'8" | 180 | Bessemer, AL |
| 31 | Dashaun Caffee | S | JR | 5'7" | 165 | Prattville, AL |
| 32 | Camen Upshaw | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Perry, FL |
| 35 | Matthew Laseter | S | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Flowood, MS |
| 36 | Teryn Green | S | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 38 | Braiden Cheshire | S | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Pace, FL |
| 35 | Davis Little | PK | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Suwanee, GA |
| 37 | Dylan Freebury | PK | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Rancho Palos Verdes, CA |
| 38 | Peyton Argent | PK | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Hoover, AL |
| 98 | Christopher Aikman | PK | FR | 5'11" | 150 | Schertz, TX |
| 40 | Aleksi Pulkkinen | P | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Helsinki |
| 44 | Baxter Turner | LS | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Saraland, AL |
| 47 | Grant Rountree | LS | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Nashville, TN |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.16#59
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.99 / 0.49
- Power / stuff (off)
- 76.9% / 13.8%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 22.5%#22
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 12.4% / 10.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.06#81 | 0.16#83 | 0.81#31 |
| Defense | 0.05#96 | 0.58#131 | 0.59#101 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2561st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.297th
- Offense success rate44%47th
- Defense success rate allowed39%46th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs48%45th
- Offense success — passing downs36%67th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs43%53rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs30%38th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.246th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.72nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.041st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.833rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.374th
- Defense line yards allowed1.793rd
- Offense highlight yards0.6025th
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.92nd
- Offense power success0.7858th
- Defense power success allowed0.4680th
- Offense stuff rate0.1374th
- Defense stuff rate0.3195th
Third down
- Third down conversion53%80th
- Third down distance faced6.853rd
- Third down conversion allowed33%66th
- Third down distance forced8.487th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0443rd
- Net success rate — second half0.0338th
Drives
- Points per drive2.764th
- Points per drive allowed2.833rd
- Average starting field position225th
- Opponent starting field position2857th
- Available yards gained62%77th
- Available yards allowed55%40th
- Scoring opportunities per drive89%70th
- Scoring opportunities allowed90%29th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.062nd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.140th
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced20%41st
Roster
- Returning usage76%90th
- Returning EPA18170th
- Team talent composite57323rd
- Recruiting class rank77.045th
- Recruiting class points18745th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.239 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 44.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 51.6%
- Over expected
- -6.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +4
- Fourth down vs the model
- +25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. South Alabama is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to South Alabama in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.4 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 7-1 | 77% | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 36% | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 3.6 | +0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.2. Wins the Sun Belt in 4.7%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 38%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.0 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 38% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.2% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
South Alabama’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Kentucky1.0
- wk10at Louisiana0.6
- wk9vs Louisiana Tech0.5
- wk6at Arkansas State0.4
- wk8at Marshall0.4
- wk11vs Troy0.4
Who to root for
Games South Alabama is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Virginia over Delaware0.2
- wk11Sacramento State over Central Michigan0.2
- wk3Sam Houston over Nicholls0.2
- wk11Kent State over Bowling Green0.1
- wk6LSU over Kentucky0.1
- wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.1
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.2-3.88 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so South Alabama can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10South Alabama at Louisiana10.7
- wk9Louisiana Tech at South Alabama8.7
- wk6South Alabama at Arkansas State7.8
- wk11Troy at South Alabama7.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
South Alabama is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- New Orleans Bowl8.4%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl7.5%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl7.4%
- 68 Ventures Bowl7.0%
- Frisco Bowl6.8%
- Cure Bowl6.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent South Alabama a player since 2010 — 27 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of South Alabama's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.