#9Quinton Flowers

QB·South Florida·2017 2016 20156.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Quinton Flowers is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for South Florida. Quinton's 2015 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 452 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Quinton Flowers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

163/276 Comp/Att2296 Pass yards22 Pass TD8 INT59.1% Comp %

Rushing

991 Rush yards12 Rush TD191 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat75
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs UCF (SP+ -16).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida A&M	W51-3	—	12/16	141	2	1	83.0	63	1	0.35
2	@Florida State	L14-34	23.2	12/24	125	2	1	10.9	38	0	-0.14
3	@Maryland	L17-35	-1.6	10/19	60	1	1	28.2	85	1	0.01
5	vsMemphis	L17-24	8.0	17/26	199	1	1	41.9	23	0	0.14
6	vsSyracuse	W45-24	-3.9	15/22	259	2	0	63.4	55	1	0.55
7	@UConn	W28-20	-6.3	11/15	157	2	2	65.5	98	1	0.37
8	vsSMU	W38-14	-17.5	9/20	97	0	0	29.9	201	3	0.14
9	@Navy	L17-29	12.1	12/20	208	0	0	72.1	15	0	0.40
10	@East Carolina	W22-17	-0.5	12/23	200	2	0	44.3	79	0	0.26
11	vsTemple	W44-23	6.0	15/22	230	2	0	80.1	90	1	0.29
12	vsCincinnati	W65-27	5.3	10/16	171	4	2	91.8	49	0	0.61
13	@UCF	W44-3	-15.5	14/21	176	3	0	92.6	87	2	0.62
1	vsWestern Kentucky	L35-45	10.8	14/32	273	1	0	53.4	108	2	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.2%

Passing plays

92.4%

Rushing plays

30.0%

Standard downs

45.5%

Passing downs

63.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	South Florida	6.1	0.410	—	194.8
2016	South Florida	11.4	0.552	+0.14	270.8
2017	South Florida	8.0	0.430	-0.12	228.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.