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Monaray Baldwin
Monaray Baldwin

#80Monaray Baldwin

WR·Baylor·2024

Monaray Baldwin is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Baylor. Monaray's 2024 season produced 35.8 total EPA across 31 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Monaray Baldwin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
27 Receptions478 Rec yards5 Rec TD17.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume12
  • Explosiveness71
  • Consistency73
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 1.25 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.85 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs TCU (SP+ 11).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.850−2.85Wk 1 vs Tarleton State: +2.06 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Utah: -0.14 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Air Force: +0.15 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Colorado: +0.29 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Iowa State: +0.77 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Texas Tech: +0.71 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Oklahoma State: +0.54 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs TCU: +2.85 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs West Virginia: +2.79 EPA/play12Wk 14 vs Kansas: +1.33 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsTarleton StateW45-3—23618.00222.06
2@UtahL12-237.7155.005-0.14
3vsAir ForceW31-3-11.711313.00130.15
4@ColoradoL31-388.133612.01300.29
6@Iowa StateL21-4310.32199.50110.77
8@Texas TechW59-354.322613.01240.71
9vsOklahoma StateW38-28-2.612323.00230.54
10vsTCUW37-3410.814040.00402.85
12@West VirginiaW49-352.138227.31402.79
14vsKansasW45-174.9711917.02391.33
20vsLSUL31-4415.947919.8046—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
4.3%
Passing plays
8.5%
Rushing plays
0.7%
Standard downs
4.1%
Passing downs
5.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.85
Passing downs
1.71
Pass / Rush EPA
1.34 / -0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.