vs Louisiana Tech · Wk 3Win prob 78%Model -12.1Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
D.J. LagwayPassing333 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Dawson PendergrassRushing157 yds · 0 TD · 3.9 avg
Gavin FreemanReceiving22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD
Travion BarnesTackles13 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Baylor
All news →D.J. Lagway's 333 yards died on third down
Baylor rebuilt its tackles; Auburn kept its front
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DJ Lagway | QB | JR | 6'3" | 237 | Willis, TX |
| 12 | Nate Bennett | QB | JR | 6'1" | 192 | Westlake Village, CA |
| 13 | Quinn Murphy | QB | FR | 6'3" | 209 | Argyle, TX |
| 14 | Edward Griffin | QB | SO | 6'1" | 213 | Coppell, TX |
| 17 | Cade Tessier | QB | SR | 6'3" | 219 | Montgomery, TX |
| 11 | Caden Knighten | RB | SO | 5'11" | 211 | Pauls Valley, OK |
| 20 | Jacorey Watson | RB | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Pearland, TX |
| 23 | Michael Turner | RB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | North Richland Hills, TX |
| 25 | Ryelan Morris | RB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Honey Grove, TX |
| 33 | HD Davis | RB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Wolfe City, TX |
| 35 | Dawson Pendergrass | RB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Alba, TX |
| 1 | Dre'lon Miller | WR | JR | 6'0" | 207 | Silsbee, TX |
| 3 | Jadon Porter | WR | JR | 6'1" | 192 | Lorena, TX |
| 4 | Louis Brown IV | WR | SR | 6'2" | 206 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 6 | Gavin Freeman | WR | SR | 5'9" | 181 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 15 | Jayden McGowan | WR | SR | 5'7" | 187 | Laurens, SC |
| 16 | London Smith | WR | FR | 6'0" | 211 | Waco, TX |
| 18 | Taz Williams Jr. | WR | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Red Oak, TX |
| 32 | Brody Day | WR | SO | 5'11" | 188 | Spring Branch, TX |
| 34 | Davion Peters | WR | FR | 5'9" | 172 | Belton, TX |
| 80 | Jackson Baird | WR | JR | 6'4" | 198 | Waco, TX |
| 81 | Ryne Shackelford | WR | SR | 6'0" | 186 | Elyria, OH |
| 83 | DeBraun Hampton | WR | JR | 5'10" | 184 | Montgomery, TX |
| 84 | Chase Collier | WR | SO | 6'1" | 181 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 87 | Ashton Jones | WR | SO | 6'5" | 202 | Pearland, TX |
| 89 | Michael Johnson Jr. | WR | JR | 6'3" | 207 | Batesville, MS |
| 10 | Tony Livingston | TE | SR | 6'6" | 255 | Tampa, FL |
| 43 | Brody Wilhelm | TE | SO | 6'5" | 236 | Austin, TX |
| 46 | Parker Almanza | TE | FR | 6'2" | 245 | Trophy Club, TX |
| 85 | Matthew Klopfenstein | TE | SR | 6'4" | 248 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 86 | Hawkins Polley | TE | SR | 6'4" | 256 | Houston, TX |
| 88 | Kai Wesley | TE | FR | 6'7" | 252 | Orem, UT |
| 56 | Harrison Cluff | OL | SO | 6'4" | 315 | Columbia, MS |
| 57 | Journey Tala | OL | SO | 6'3" | 302 | San Diego, CA |
| 58 | Cooper Lovelace | OL | SR | 6'5" | 313 | Prairie Village, KS |
| 61 | Cayden Tone | OL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | San Mateo, CA |
| 62 | Alessandro Lorenzetti | OL | SR | 6'5" | 314 | Montreal, PQ |
| 63 | Wyatt Swaner | OL | JR | 6'1" | 287 | Dallas, TX |
| 64 | Jaydon Mendiola | OL | SO | 6'4" | 308 | Clovis, CA |
| 66 | Koltin Sieracki | OL | JR | 6'4" | 317 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 67 | David Roberts Jr. | OL | SO | 6'5" | 341 | Irmo, SC |
| 69 | Donel Robinson Jr. | OL | FR | 6'3" | 308 | Durant, MS |
| 70 | Nate Kibble | OL | JR | 6'3" | 333 | Humble, TX |
| 71 | Matthew Parker | OL | SO | 6'7" | 316 | Flowood, MS |
| 72 | Asher Hale | OL | JR | 6'5" | 326 | Mobile, AL |
| 73 | Keystone Allison | OL | SR | 6'3" | 317 | Carthage, TX |
| 74 | Kaden Sieracki | OL | SR | 6'9" | 310 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 75 | Muyont'a Maxwell | OL | JR | 6'4" | 295 | Kansas City, MO |
| 76 | Lawson Petty | OL | SR | 6'2" | 305 | Dallas, TX |
| 77 | Logan Moore | OL | SR | 6'8" | 296 | San Diego, CA |
| 78 | Cole Rhett | OL | SR | 6'6" | 348 | Columbus, OH |
| 79 | Connor Cameron | OL | JR | 6'7" | 306 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 9 | Ryan Davis | DE | SR | 6'4" | 251 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 13 | Garrick Ponder | DE | SR | 6'2" | 247 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 40 | Kyler Jordan | DE | SR | 6'2" | 251 | Lubbock, TX |
| 53 | Daemian Wimberly | DE | SR | 6'4" | 263 | Austin, TX |
| 55 | Jaylin Jones | DE | JR | 6'6" | 230 | Beaumont, TX |
| 57 | Christopher Johnson | DE | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Rosharon, TX |
| 92 | Trent Thomas | DE | SR | 6'6" | 259 | Missouri City, TX |
| 93 | Zavion Hardy | DE | SR | 6'5" | 281 | Macon, GA |
| 94 | Tyrone Morgan | DE | FR | 6'3" | 218 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 97 | Jordan Mack | DE | SR | 6'4" | 277 | Waldorf, MD |
| 0 | Hosea Wheeler | DL | SR | 6'3" | 306 | Sacramento, CA |
| 52 | Aleki Manutai | DL | JR | 6'2" | 280 | — |
| 54 | Jae'Lin Battle | DL | FR | 6'2" | 303 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 59 | Devonte Tezino | DL | SR | 6'5" | 284 | Killeen, TX |
| 90 | Braylen Jackson | DL | SR | 6'4" | 289 | Mansfield, TX |
| 91 | Traevon Mitchell | DL | SR | 6'0" | 282 | Waldorf, MD |
| 96 | Kamren Washington | DL | SR | 6'1" | 281 | Arlington, TX |
| 98 | Jackson Blackwell | DL | SO | 6'3" | 314 | Lorena, TX |
| 99 | Jamaal Whyce Jr. | DL | SR | 6'4" | 301 | Miami, FL |
| 5 | Travion Barnes | LB | SR | 6'0" | 247 | Altamonte Springs, FL |
| 10 | Kyland Reed | LB | JR | 6'1" | 222 | Arlington, TX |
| 31 | Anthony Crenshaw Jr. | LB | SR | 6'0" | 218 | Arlington, TX |
| 36 | Kedrick Walker | LB | SR | 6'3" | 236 | Adamsville, AL |
| 41 | Kaleb Burns | LB | SO | 6'1" | 224 | Houston, TX |
| 42 | Jamarion Phillips | LB | FR | 6'0" | 222 | Dallas, TX |
| 44 | JJ Shelton | LB | SO | 6'1" | 204 | Dallas, TX |
| 46 | Jahiem Porter | LB | FR | 6'1" | 245 | Cedar Park, TX |
| 49 | Trey Laurence | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | San Antonio, TX |
| 56 | Kaleb Arterberry | LB | SO | 6'3" | 246 | Pearl, MS |
| 7 | Devon Jordan | CB | JR | 5'11" | 183 | Tulsa, OK |
| 12 | Kyler Beaty | CB | JR | 6'2" | 202 | Comanche, TX |
| 22 | Reggie Bush II | CB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Frisco, TX |
| 23 | Stilton McKelvey | CB | SR | 5'11" | 178 | Houston, TX |
| 25 | LeVar Thornton Jr. | CB | SR | 6'3" | 182 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 27 | Jayden Rowe | CB | SR | 6'2" | 227 | Tulsa, OK |
| 28 | Calvin Simpson-Hunt | CB | SR | 6'0" | 209 | Waxahachie, TX |
| 33 | Kalique Cheeves | CB | SO | 6'1" | 155 | Livermore, CA |
| 34 | Daniel Edeni | CB | JR | 6'2" | 203 | San Antonio, TX |
| 38 | Jamarion Richardson | CB | FR | 5'10" | 162 | Texarkana, TX |
| 8 | Jacob Redding | S | SR | 6'1" | 198 | New Braunfels, TX |
| 11 | Devin Turner | S | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Little Elm, TX |
| 14 | Daniel Cobbs | S | SR | 5'11" | 199 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 15 | Colby McCalister | S | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Houston, TX |
| 17 | Tyler Turner | S | SR | 6'0" | 187 | San Antonio, TX |
| 19 | Leo Almanza Jr. | S | SO | 6'2" | 192 | Trophy Club, TX |
| 21 | Bo Onu | S | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Carrollton, TX |
| 24 | Micah Gifford | S | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 26 | Colin Peacock | S | SO | 6'1" | 206 | Gunter, TX |
| 29 | Jordan Davis | S | FR | 6'2" | 204 | Prosper, TX |
| 30 | Michael Allen | S | SR | 5'7" | 180 | Stilwell, KS |
| 32 | Austin Ausberry | S | SR | 6'0" | 193 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 37 | Demetrius Brisbon | S | SO | 5'11" | 181 | Tyler, TX |
| 39 | Cole Redding | S | SO | 5'10" | 187 | New Braunfels, TX |
| 48 | Jad Darkazalli | S | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Arlington, TX |
| 96 | Riley Sullivan | PK | SR | 6'3" | 216 | Lexington, NC |
| 97 | Bronson Mueller | PK | FR | 5'9" | 204 | Rockwall, TX |
| 98 | Rhett Armstrong | PK | SO | 6'5" | 209 | Monument, CO |
| 94 | Palmer Williams | P | SR | 6'2" | 221 | Advance, NC |
| 60 | Brady Hibbard | LS | JR | 6'2" | 201 | Marshville, NC |
| 93 | Dylan Schaub | LS | SR | 6'5" | 231 | New Waverly, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.76#107
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.69 / 0.22
- Power / stuff (off)
- 33.3% / 19.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 21.4%#26
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 15.3% / 6.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.02#91 | 0.18#81 | 0.29#108 |
| Defense | -0.25#21 | -0.30#10 | 0.64#108 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2045th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1189th
- Offense success rate44%47th
- Defense success rate allowed25%96th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%31st
- Offense success — passing downs41%80th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs28%96th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs18%87th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.250th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.58th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9226th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.163rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.266th
- Defense line yards allowed2.281st
- Offense highlight yards0.305th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.6253rd
- Offense power success0.6025th
- Defense power success allowed0.5078th
- Offense stuff rate0.1565th
- Defense stuff rate0.2780th
Third down
- Third down conversion43%50th
- Third down distance faced6.754th
- Third down conversion allowed41%34th
- Third down distance forced8.282nd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2990th
- Net success rate — second half0.0549th
Drives
- Points per drive1.432nd
- Points per drive allowed1.474th
- Average starting field position2415th
- Opponent starting field position2853rd
- Available yards gained53%59th
- Available yards allowed47%57th
- Scoring opportunities per drive83%60th
- Scoring opportunities allowed92%18th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.719th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.585th
- Three-and-out rate25%46th
- Three-and-outs forced25%56th
CORE
- CORE offense1.767th
- CORE defense-5.381st
- CORE overall7.077th
Roster
- Returning usage65%76th
- Returning EPA21380th
- Team talent composite72369th
- Recruiting class rank57.059th
- Recruiting class points20159th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.389 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.6%
- Over expected
- +2.9
- Fourth down vs peers
- +16
- Fourth down vs the model
- -13
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Baylor is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Baylor in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.4 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 6-3 | 62% | 8.1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 25% | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 4-5 | 46% | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 8-2 | 86% | 10.2 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 22% | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 8-2 | 79% | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 1-11 | 1-8 | 8% | 3.0 | -2.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.9-6.1. Wins the Big 12 in 2.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 1.3 points since preseason — lost 16-17 to Auburn against an expected margin of −8, so +6.7 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 76% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.
Baylor’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at BYU8.1
- wk12vs Texas Tech7.9
- wk13at Houston5.3
- wk9at UCF4.5
- wk5at Arizona State4.4
- wk7vs TCU4.3
Who to root for
Games Baylor is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk8Cincinnati over Texas Tech0.7
- wk9Arizona over Texas Tech0.7
- wk7Notre Dame over BYU0.7
- wk11Oklahoma State over Texas Tech0.7
- wk11Arizona over Utah0.6
- wk7Arizona State over Texas Tech0.6
Big 12
0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-4.99 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Texas Tech at Baylor6.1
- wk11Baylor at BYU6.0
- wk13Baylor at Houston3.8
- wk9Baylor at UCF3.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Baylor is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- First Responder Bowl7.9%
- Independence Bowl7.4%
- Rate Bowl6.8%
- Liberty Bowl6.6%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl5.6%
- Texas Bowl4.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 11 have sent Baylor a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Baylor's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.