#10McKenzie Milton

QB·UCF·2018 20179.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

McKenzie Milton is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCF. McKenzie's 2018 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 337 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So McKenzie Milton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

171/289 Comp/Att2663 Pass yards25 Pass TD6 INT59.2% Comp %

Rushing

307 Rush yards9 Rush TD79 Carries3.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency80
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UConn (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@UConn	W56-17	-26.4	24/32	346	5	0	50	0	0.85
2	vsSouth Carolina State	W38-0	—	21/39	243	1	3	16	0	0.10
4	vsFlorida Atlantic	W56-36	-0.8	21/32	306	3	0	81	3	0.66
5	vsPittsburgh	W45-14	2.7	18/34	328	4	0	51	2	0.60
6	vsSMU	W48-20	-5.4	18/34	278	2	1	17	0	0.45
7	@Memphis	W31-30	9.2	17/29	296	1	0	-11	1	0.33
10	vsTemple	W52-40	2.9	17/33	312	3	1	19	1	0.47
11	vsNavy	W35-24	-10.2	17/21	200	2	0	62	1	0.81
12	vsCincinnati	W38-13	5.4	13/25	268	3	0	6	1	0.45
13	@South Florida	W38-10	-1.2	5/10	86	1	1	16	0	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.0%

Passing plays

92.4%

Rushing plays

16.7%

Standard downs

45.3%

Passing downs

54.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.94
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.44

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	UCF	14.7	0.629	—	317.5
2018	UCF	9.7	0.617	-0.01	222.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.