#1Lynn Bowden Jr.

WR·Kentucky·20196.3 pts line value1st Round

Lynn Bowden Jr. is a Workhorse Receiver WR for Kentucky. Lynn's 2019 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 302 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lynn Bowden Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

35/74 Comp/Att403 Pass yards3 Pass TD3 INT47.3% Comp %

Rushing

1468 Rush yards13 Rush TD185 Carries7.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions348 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Returns

9 Kick returns220 KR yards0 KR TD4 Punt returns53 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs WR peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Explosiveness31
Consistency69
Pass-Down98

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Louisville (SP+ 0).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsToledo	W38-24	-13.7	6	77	12.8	0	30	0.27
2	vsEastern Michigan	W38-17	-8.6	7	54	7.7	1	14	0.16
3	vsFlorida	L21-29	24.0	7	70	10.0	0	21	0.33
4	@Mississippi State	L13-28	3.5	7	129	18.4	0	39	0.32
5	@South Carolina	L7-24	4.8	3	18	6.0	0	13	-0.01
7	vsArkansas	W24-20	-10.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.52
8	@Georgia	L0-21	26.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.26
9	vsMissouri	W29-7	7.8	—	—	—	—	—	0.38
11	vsTennessee	L13-17	10.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.18
12	@Vanderbilt	W38-14	-10.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.49
13	vsUT Martin	W50-7	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.54
14	vsLouisville	W45-13	0.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.89
1	vsVirginia Tech	W37-30	8.0	—	—	—	—	—	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.4%

Passing plays

49.6%

Rushing plays

32.1%

Standard downs

35.0%

Passing downs

42.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.