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Kelly Akharaiyi
Kelly Akharaiyi

#1Kelly Akharaiyi

WR·UTEP·2023

Kelly Akharaiyi is a Vertical Threat WR for UTEP. Kelly's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 59 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kelly Akharaiyi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
48 Receptions1033 Rec yards7 Rec TD21.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume24
  • Explosiveness97
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down69
Player type
Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 1.01 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.82 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.820−2.82Wk 1 vs Incarnate Word: +0.32 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Northwestern: +1.35 EPA/play2Wk 4 vs UNLV: +1.74 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Louisiana Tech: -0.22 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Florida International: +2.46 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs New Mexico State: +0.32 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Sam Houston: +1.28 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Western Kentucky: +2.56 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Middle Tennessee: +2.82 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Liberty: +2.03 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
0@Jacksonville StateL14-17-1.6410225.5132—
1vsIncarnate WordW28-14—166.0060.32
2@NorthwesternL7-38-1.355310.60181.35
4vsUNLVL28-451.449223.00291.74
5vsLouisiana TechL10-24-12.933712.3016-0.22
7@Florida InternationalW27-14-21.2822327.92802.46
8vsNew Mexico StateL7-28-1.8166.0060.32
9@Sam HoustonW37-34-13.8612621.01411.28
10vsWestern KentuckyL13-21-2.0514128.21622.56
12@Middle TennesseeL30-34-9.5613823.02802.82
13vsLibertyL28-428.0510921.80642.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.4%
Passing plays
18.5%
Rushing plays
0.3%
Standard downs
5.9%
Passing downs
13.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.49
Passing downs
1.60
Pass / Rush EPA
1.55 / 1.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.