@ Michigan · Wk 3Win prob 1%Model +32.7Schedule & Results
OUOklahomaL0-51✓Wk 2vsTESOTexas SouthernW51-10✓Wk 3@MICHMichigan+32.71%Wk 4vs
ORSTOregon State+8.229%Wk 5@
UNMNew Mexico+25.15%Wk 6vs
NEVNevada+6.036%Wk 7vs
SJSUSan José State-12.684%Wk 9@
NDSUNorth Dakota State+18.310%Wk 10vs
HAWHawai'i+23.77%Wk 11vs
WYOWyoming+3.941%Wk 12@
AFAir Force+22.57%Wk 13@
NIUNorthern Illinois+7.531%Team Leaders
EJ ColsonPassing291 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
Raymond Moore IIIRushing142 yds · 1 TD · 11.8 avg
Kam ThomasReceiving2 rec · 92 yds · 1 TD
Xavier SmithTackles10 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on UTEP
All news →Noah Best held up. Michigan week is about Michael Fasusi
Adebawore Stayed, and UTEP's Patchwork Line has to Block Him
Roster · 110 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EJ Colson Jr. | QB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Byron, GA |
| 9 | Bodey Weaver | QB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Colleyville, TX |
| 10 | Chad Warner | QB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Cibolo, TX |
| 12 | Raymond Moore III | QB | SO | 6'4" | 180 | Baltimore, MD |
| 15 | Braesen Leon | QB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 0 | Tavorus Jones | RB | JR | 5'9" | 205 | El Paso, TX |
| 6 | Elijah McCoy | RB | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Midland, TX |
| 8 | Kam Thomas | RB | SR | 5'9" | 184 | Birmingham, AL |
| 19 | Daveon Singleton | RB | FR | 5'7" | 156 | El Paso, TX |
| 21 | Jaden Moore | RB | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Compton, CA |
| 22 | Chris Hunter | RB | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Canton, MS |
| 32 | Lamar Sperling | RB | JR | 5'8" | 190 | Akron, OH |
| 2 | Royal Capell | WR | SO | 5'10" | 205 | Cibolo, TX |
| 3 | Jaden Smith | WR | SR | 5'10" | 195 | Loganville, GA |
| 5 | Carver Cheeks | WR | SR | 6'2" | 197 | Colorado Springs, CO |
| 7 | Jaylan Brown | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Nacogdoches, TX |
| 13 | Nik Henry | WR | SO | 5'10" | 155 | Seguin, TX |
| 14 | Marcus Torres | WR | SO | 5'10" | 175 | El Paso, TX |
| 16 | Mason Ferguson | WR | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 17 | Carmelo Taylor | WR | JR | 6'0" | 169 | Roanoke, VA |
| 18 | Rafeald Campbell | WR | SO | 5'11" | 175 | Arlington, TX |
| 24 | CJ Simon | WR | FR | 6'0" | 165 | Tuttle, OK |
| 25 | Zo Hill | WR | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Denton, TX |
| 80 | Jacaleb Johnson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 198 | Silsbee, TX |
| 81 | Jeremiah Nash | WR | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Stockton, CA |
| 86 | JD Wallace | WR | FR | 6'3" | 208 | Houston, TX |
| 4 | Cash Cheeks | TE | JR | 6'7" | 235 | Colorado Springs, CO |
| 82 | Judah Ezinwa | TE | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Fontana, CA |
| 84 | Jamal Frilot | TE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Houston, TX |
| 85 | Jackson Stoner | TE | FR | 6'5" | 258 | Rockwall, TX |
| 87 | Chance Bell | TE | JR | 6'5" | 225 | San Diego, CA |
| 88 | Benny Okwura | TE | FR | 6'4" | 219 | Houston, TX |
| 89 | Johan Camacho | TE | FR | 6'3" | 217 | El Paso, TX |
| 50 | Isaiah Maumalanga | OL | SR | 6'5" | 290 | Dallas, TX |
| 51 | Eric Sandoval Araujo | OL | FR | 6'5" | 263 | El Paso, TX |
| 52 | Jackson Bradley | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Knoxville, TN |
| 53 | Tripp Townsend | OL | FR | 6'0" | 250 | Dallas, TX |
| 54 | Jaymon Lamb | OL | JR | 6'3" | 273 | Dallas, TX |
| 55 | Omoruyi Aliu-Otokiti | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Orlando, FL |
| 56 | Brian Williams Jr. | OL | SO | 6'2" | 330 | Atlanta, GA |
| 57 | Craig Wydra | OL | SO | 6'4" | 305 | El Paso, TX |
| 58 | Rashad Smith | OL | JR | 6'2" | 320 | Birmingham, AL |
| 62 | Eddie Lartigue Jr. | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Houston, TX |
| 67 | Jayden Trapp | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Columbus, TX |
| 70 | Maddox Huber | OL | FR | 6'7" | 300 | Hamshire, TX |
| 71 | Preston Perkins | OL | FR | 6'6" | 270 | Austin, TX |
| 73 | Tyler Roberts | OL | FR | 6'8" | 314 | Corpus Christi, TX |
| 74 | Grayson Johnson | OL | JR | 6'9" | 330 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 75 | Juan Camacho Jr. | OL | SR | 6'6" | 285 | El Paso, TX |
| 76 | Diego De La Cruz | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Monterrey |
| 77 | Wesley Dallao-Kubik | OL | FR | 6'5" | 299 | Colleyville, TX |
| 78 | Ryder Slaton | OL | FR | 6'7" | 280 | Melissa, TX |
| 79 | Pryce McClanahan | OL | FR | 6'2" | 323 | Cibolo, TX |
| 6 | Ekow Taylor | DE | JR | 6'5" | 220 | Keller, TX |
| 19 | Sterling Miles | DE | SR | 6'4" | 238 | West Bloomfield, MI |
| 21 | Dycin Davis | DE | FR | 6'2" | 238 | Abilene, TX |
| 25 | Royce Wilson | DE | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Houston, TX |
| 31 | Joshua Shaw | DE | FR | 6'2" | 216 | Allen, TX |
| 35 | Kofi Taylor-Barrocks | DE | JR | 6'3" | 230 | London |
| 40 | Jaxon Smith | DE | SO | 6'7" | 225 | Prague, OK |
| 1 | Elijah Fields | DL | SR | 6'1" | 285 | Houston, TX |
| 3 | Shakaun Bowser | DL | SR | 6'5" | 255 | Mesa, AZ |
| 9 | Oryend Fisher | DL | JR | 6'6" | 225 | Georgetown, KY |
| 11 | Derek Burns | DL | JR | 6'5" | 254 | Dallas, TX |
| 55 | Leander Parrish | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Mesquite, TX |
| 88 | Truth Holmes | DL | FR | 6'2" | 293 | Sulphur Springs, TX |
| 92 | Justin Roberts | DL | FR | 6'2" | 265 | Spring Branch, TX |
| 93 | Jerrell Brasher | DL | JR | 6'1" | 295 | Gadsden, AL |
| 94 | Jimmy Leon | DL | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Tucson, AZ |
| 95 | DAdrian Tinney-Anderson | DL | FR | 6'2" | 306 | Goliad, TX |
| 96 | Caynan James | DL | FR | 6'0" | 284 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 97 | Shaun McDowell | DL | FR | 6'1" | 283 | Richmond, TX |
| 98 | Preston Hickey | DL | SR | 6'1" | 300 | Mandeville, LA |
| 90 | Ashton Coker | DT | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Katy, TX |
| 4 | Garrett Hawkins | LB | JR | 6'3" | 227 | Sevierville, TN |
| 8 | Shay Smith | LB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | El Paso, TX |
| 10 | Jayden Wilson | LB | SR | 6'1" | 218 | El Paso, TX |
| 13 | Isaiah Bogerty | LB | SR | 6'3" | 230 | Stafford, TX |
| 38 | Jalen Hamilton | LB | FR | 6'5" | 189 | Round Rock, TX |
| 41 | Vashon Brunswick II | LB | SO | 6'1" | 215 | Garland, TX |
| 42 | Copelin Windfont | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Barrett Station, TX |
| 45 | Justin Lee | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Round Rock, TX |
| 48 | Japrei Wafer | LB | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Allen, TX |
| 0 | Justin Content | CB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Hoschton, GA |
| 5 | TJ Tillman | CB | SO | 6'0" | 165 | Amarillo, TX |
| 18 | Decorian Thompson | CB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Mount Pleasant, TX |
| 23 | Kaleb Miles | CB | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Prosper, TX |
| 26 | Darien Fantroy | CB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Killeen, TX |
| 15 | Colt Matlock | DB | FR | 6'0" | 176 | Weatherford, TX |
| 20 | Grant Stewart | DB | FR | 5'10" | 188 | Houston, TX |
| 27 | LaTristan Thompson | DB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Mount Pleasant, TX |
| 29 | Dylan Brown-Turner | DB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Dallas, TX |
| 32 | Adarius Hutchinson | DB | FR | 6'2" | 182 | Bellville, TX |
| 2 | Xavier Smith | S | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Atlanta, GA |
| 7 | Kode Lowe | S | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Coleman, FL |
| 12 | Donavan Howard | S | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Danville, VA |
| 14 | Chace Biddle | S | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Garland, TX |
| 16 | Esteban Guillory | S | SR | 6'1" | 205 | San Antonio, TX |
| 17 | Darnell Williams | S | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Texarkana, TX |
| 22 | Kane White-Tinsley | S | FR | 5'11" | 178 | Amarillo, TX |
| 24 | Jaime Guerrero | S | SR | 6'1" | 185 | El Paso, TX |
| 28 | Tylen Hockett | S | FR | 6'1" | 170 | Mansfield, TX |
| 30 | Allen Gant | S | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Lubbock, TX |
| 33 | Josiah Jones | S | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Chicago, IL |
| 33 | Parker Cushing | PK | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 48 | Cade Hechter | PK | SR | 6'2" | 245 | Sydney, NSW |
| 91 | Carlos Arreola | PK | SR | 5'10" | 200 | — |
| 47 | Brady Braun | P | SR | 6'0" | 245 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 46 | Carson Loeb | LS | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Cypress, TX |
| 49 | Ian Hall | LS | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Houston, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 137th on first and second down.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#137projected
- Offensefirst and second down#137projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#137projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.63#117
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.44 / 1.67
- Power / stuff (off)
- 25.0% / 28.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.3%#77
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 12.9% / 2.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.29#137 | -0.04#115 | 0.76#38 |
| Defense | 0.00#83 | 0.28#95 | 0.88#128 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.039th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2215th
- Offense success rate43%45th
- Defense success rate allowed42%31st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs48%42nd
- Offense success — passing downs32%47th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs44%45th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs35%19th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.245th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.253rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.168th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.616th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.718th
- Defense line yards allowed2.653rd
- Offense highlight yards2.695th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5361st
- Offense power success0.254th
- Defense power success allowed0.5964th
- Offense stuff rate0.259th
- Defense stuff rate0.2778th
Third down
- Third down conversion32%12th
- Third down distance faced6.558th
- Third down conversion allowed46%20th
- Third down distance forced6.213th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0322nd
- Net success rate — second half0.0958th
Drives
- Points per drive-0.641st
- Points per drive allowed4.012th
- Average starting field position3273rd
- Opponent starting field position431st
- Available yards gained20%4th
- Available yards allowed66%15th
- Scoring opportunities per drive45%2nd
- Scoring opportunities allowed91%24th
- Points per scoring opportunity0.003rd
- Points allowed per opportunity4.413th
- Three-and-out rate36%26th
- Three-and-outs forced18%33rd
Roster
- Returning usage10%7th
- Returning EPA-0.92nd
- Team talent composite58626th
- Recruiting class rank92.034th
- Recruiting class points18034th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.659 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 43.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 53.7%
- Over expected
- -10.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -7
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. UTEP is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to UTEP in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 25% | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 0-4 | 38% | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 2019 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 1-11 | 1-7 | 8% | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 2017 | 0-12 | 0-8 | 0% | 0.9 | -0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 3.4-8.6.
down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 0-51 to Oklahoma against an expected margin of −41, so −10.5 against the number.
- The Mountain West takes 0.18 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
UTEP’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk5at New Mexico0.1
- wk4vs Oregon State0.0
- wk6vs Nevada0.0
- wk12at Air Force0.0
- wk10vs Hawai'i0.0
- wk7vs San José State0.0
Who to root for
Games UTEP is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk8UL Monroe over Troy0.0
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas0.0
- wk7UL Monroe over Louisiana Tech0.0
- wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.0
- wk4Sacramento State over Massachusetts0.0
- wk13Georgia State over Louisiana0.0
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 2.3-5.710 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 32% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5UTEP at New Mexico3.2
- wk3UTEP at Michigan2.1
- wk6Nevada at UTEP1.2
- wk12UTEP at Air Force1.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
UTEP is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl3.3%
- Arizona Bowl2.6%
- Hawai'i Bowl2.6%
- New Mexico Bowl1.2%
- LA Bowl0.5%
- Cure Bowl0.3%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent UTEP a player since 2010 — 13 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of UTEP's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.