#5Keegan Shoemaker

QB·Sam Houston·2023

Keegan Shoemaker is a Clutch Passer for Sam Houston. Keegan's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 491 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keegan Shoemaker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

264/419 Comp/Att2504 Pass yards15 Pass TD11 INT63.0% Comp %

Rushing

254 Rush yards1 Rush TD93 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts94 Punt yards47.0 Yards/punt47 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat47
Consistency69
Clutch57

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Louisiana Tech (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@BYU	L0-14	-3.3	18/33	147	0	3	13.2	13	0	-0.02
2	vsAir Force	L3-13	5.9	8/14	44	0	0	6.5	-10	0	-0.28
5	vsJacksonville State	L28-35	-1.6	22/38	285	2	1	45.4	6	0	0.44
6	@Liberty	L16-21	8.0	27/41	255	2	1	66.6	52	0	0.24
7	@New Mexico State	L13-27	-1.8	32/48	285	2	0	38.2	42	0	0.18
8	vsFlorida International	L27-33	-21.2	31/47	306	2	1	33.7	30	0	0.44
9	vsUTEP	L34-37	-16.2	22/39	202	2	1	34.9	28	0	0.21
10	vsKennesaw State	W24-21	—	30/38	242	3	1	20.2	-1	0	0.36
11	@Louisiana Tech	W42-27	-12.9	18/28	269	1	0	83.8	54	1	0.55
12	@Western Kentucky	L23-28	-2.0	25/45	271	1	2	43.2	34	0	0.22
13	vsMiddle Tennessee	W23-20	-9.5	31/48	198	0	1	33.4	6	0	0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

65.3%

Passing plays

99.3%

Rushing plays

23.7%

Standard downs

56.9%

Passing downs

81.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).