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Sam Houston

Sam Houston Bearkats

Conference USA·0-2·
Compare
Elo
1164#132
SP+
-21.5#129
FPI
-16.6
AP
NR
Nextvs Nicholls · Wk 3
Talent #117 (554.5)Recruiting class #12658% production returning

Roster · 106 players

FR 21SO 16JR 31SR 38
#PlayerPosClHtWt
8Landyn LockeQBSO6'4"220
9Brett HollowayQBFR5'11"210
15DJ BaileyQBJR5'11"220
16Mason HoltzclawQBFR6'1"205
18Shaan PatelQBFR6'1"200
6Jerrian Parker Jr.RBJR5'10"210
10Landan BrownRBSR5'11"215
20MJ DowdyRBFR5'11"210
22Alton McCaskillRBSR6'2"220
24Kaden WinkfieldRBFR5'11"195
25Ah'Marion Gaines-SmithRBSR5'11"220
43Nick NormanRBSR5'9"205
0Darrick Bledsoe IIIWRSR5'8"185
1Aviyon Smith-MackWRSR5'8"170
2Chris ReedWRSR6'0"195
3Tim Burns Jr.WRSR5'10"170
4Alijah CasonWRJR5'10"175
5Kyan Berry-JohnsonWRJR5'11"185
7Grady O'NeillWRSR5'9"170
11Kaleb MitchellWRSO6'7"195
12Kamari MaxwellWRSO6'1"195
13Ty SextonWRFR5'10"180
17Christian ZacharyWRJR6'4"210
19Konner DandridgeWRFR——
80Terrence Guillory IIWRJR5'9"170
84Matthew TatumWRSR5'8"170
14London DeyonTESO6'4"235
80Matt SmithTESR6'4"245
82Cooper StevensTEJR6'2"235
85Cade HaysTESO6'1"235
86Jack MerrymanTEFR6'4"235
87Max WhisnerTESR6'5"255
89Brock KuhlTESO6'4"250
50Tr'e WilliamsOLFR6'3"320
52Cam ToddOLSR6'2"305
54Brock StukesOLSR6'3"310
56Jeremiah EdmondOLSR6'1"300
57Zo'Maryon BryanOLSR6'4"315
58Carter KadowOLJR6'8"315
62Carter BuchheitOLJR6'2"290
63Joe WarrenOLJR6'4"310
66Jimmy WallsOLSR6'7"300
67Isaac SohnOLJR6'5"305
68Logan CahillOLSO6'4"310
71Denell Nix Jr.OLSO6'4"310
72Myles JosephOLFR6'4"315
73Josiah ChenaultOLSR6'2"305
74Graceson SpannOLSO6'5"305
75Elijah CollinsOLJR6'4"310
76Nathan McClellandOLJR6'5"310
14Bryen SpauldingDESR6'3"260
15Josh Alexander-FeltonDEJR6'3"265
16Brody HendersonDESO6'4"250
19Jayden FryDESO6'3"235
28Zion TaylorDEJR6'1"225
48Chauncey ChidiDESR6'3"255
91Caius CoyDESO6'3"255
10Darien JacksonDTSR6'0"305
90Uzziah WarmateDTFR5'11"250
92Jarra AndersonDTSR6'3"300
93Errol West Jr.DTFR6'0"290
95She'Fon BoydDTJR6'0"300
97Dylan FrazierDTSR6'5"280
98Justin TerrellDTJR6'3"310
99Dimitry NicolasDTJR6'4"295
12Elijah GrovesLBJR6'5"245
18Stacy BeyLBSO6'0"210
21Dean FordLBJR6'1"230
23Mike King Jr.LBJR6'0"215
26Tokyo GordonLBSR6'2"215
32Kade HoustonLBSR6'1"225
33Brian Bates Jr.LBSR6'1"230
37Ryan MalloryLBFR6'0"205
40Cole WorthingtonLBJR5'11"215
42Ca'lub HollowayLBSR6'1"245
44Ray ChathamLBJR6'1"210
45Eli WallaceLBSR5'11"215
2Justin CottrellCBSR6'1"175
4Ishmel AtkinsCBSR6'4"200
7Caesar MageeCBSR6'2"195
17Octavius HendersonCBSR6'3"190
20Dravon WilsonCBJR5'11"190
34Julian MayfieldCBFR5'10"185
35Jabaric SullivanCBFR6'0"180
38O'Kece BattleCBFR——
39Joseph OparaCBFR5'10"180
43Evan OdomCBJR6'0"175
5Jalyn StanfordSSR5'10"200
6Jaylon JonesSJR6'1"180
8Tyler BaileySSR6'0"195
9Jace ArnoldSSR5'11"185
11CJ JuneSFR5'9"190
13Railyn AdamsSJR6'0"185
16Aaron EdwardsSJR6'3"205
27Robert McFarlandSFR5'10"205
29Lyric SmithSJR6'0"190
30Braylen WorthamSSO6'2"205
36Marcus Bourda Jr.SFR6'1"185
38Cameron FranklinSSR6'2"200
81Nico OttomanelliPKJR6'3"200
83Tate RyanPKSO6'0"180
94Sam CarpenterPKSR5'11"180
31Cal JosephPSO6'1"195
46Carson WhitingtonLSSR6'0"240
47Victor GamboaLSFR6'0"225
49Cameron McCullochLSJR6'4"220

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
19.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
23.5
scoring defense
Differential
-4.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
373.0#90
Yards / play
5.3#101
Passing yards / game
335.0#18
Rushing yards / game
38.0#135
First downs / game
22.0#56
3rd down %
42.9%#67
4th down %
0.0%#108
Time of possession
30:51#62
Defense
Yards allowed / game
342.0#80
Yards / play allowed
5.2#79
Pass yards allowed / game
165.0#56
Rush yards allowed / game
177.0#115
3rd down % allowed
40.0%#85
Sacks
4#42
Tackles for loss
8#67
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-1#89
Takeaways
0#118
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
6.0#52
Penalty yards / game
35.0#24

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.

Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensethrowing it
    #135
    projected
  • Offensesurviving second and twelve
    #135
    projected
  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #135
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
2.7 – 8.3
projected final record (now 0–2)
Exp. wins left
2.7
of 9 games
Bowl odds
2%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
60%
vs New Mexico State
Toughest
0%
vs Texas Tech

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

0123456789
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 3-8 (30%)Bowl eligible 2% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRChris Reed, Grady O'Neill +4
+36.1 EPA
QBLandyn Locke, Brett Holloway
+23.9 EPA
RBAlton McCaskill, Landan Brown +1
+3.4 EPA
TEMatt Smith, Max Whisner +1
-1.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBLandyn Locke
~$872K
EPA +23.70.255/play93 snaps
RBAlton McCaskill
~$145K
EPA -4.6-0.125/play37 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1736th#88
Def0.1636th#89
Explosiveness
Off1.2141st#82
Def1.665th#131
Field position
Off80.399th#1
Def67.887th#19
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.2054th#64
Def3.4345th#76
Turnovers
Won 0Lost 2
Margin -2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3147th#74
Off · rush
-0.198th#127

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.198th#127
Def0.0247th#74
Passing
Off0.3145th#76
Def0.2934th#91

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
1.77#131
2nd-level / open-field
0.85 / 0.90
Power / stuff (off)
50.0% / 40.0%
Havoc — total (def)
21.7%#30
Havoc — front 7 / DB
13.0% / 8.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.01
Def-0.03
Pass downs
Off0.54
Def0.42

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.09#65-0.01#1030.78#40
Defense-0.21#390.54#1290.29#60

Elo Trajectory

@Troy@Florida International
Elo rating 1162 → 1164+2 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1739th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1632nd
  • Offense success rate47%56th
  • Defense success rate allowed33%64th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs53%58th
  • Offense success — passing downs35%55th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs35%74th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs31%41st

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.249th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.74th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8520th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.377th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards1.85th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.755th
  • Offense highlight yards0.9050th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.426th
  • Offense power success0.5022nd
  • Defense power success allowed0.0099th
  • Offense stuff rate0.402nd
  • Defense stuff rate0.2879th

Third down

  • Third down conversion43%47th
  • Third down distance faced10.11st
  • Third down conversion allowed40%40th
  • Third down distance forced7.963rd

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1762nd
  • Net success rate — second half0.1361st

Drives

  • Points per drive1.844th
  • Points per drive allowed2.245th
  • Average starting field position202nd
  • Opponent starting field position3126th
  • Available yards gained40%29th
  • Available yards allowed36%79th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed82%48th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.649th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.751st
  • Three-and-out rate25%49th
  • Three-and-outs forced36%76th

Roster

  • Returning usage52%62nd
  • Returning EPA38.122nd
  • Team talent composite55415th
  • Recruiting class rank1269th
  • Recruiting class points1619th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.168#88 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.310#76
Rush EPA/play
-0.186#127
Explosiveness
1.205#82
Pts/opportunity
4.20#64
Success rate
47.1%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.495 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.157#89 · average
Havoc rate (total)
21.7%#30
Front-7 havoc
13.0%
DB havoc
8.7%
Big play rate allowed
1.657#131
Success rate allowed
33.3%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

19.0 PPG offense, 23.5 allowed — -4.5 margin/game
Points per game
19.0
Points allowed/game
23.5
Scoring margin/game
-4.5
Turnover margin
-2won 0 · lost 2
Production returning
58%
Talent rank (247)
#117

0-2 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE36thEXPLOSIVENESS41thFINISHING54thFIELD POS100thDEFENSE36thHAVOC79th50th100th
Offense
36th
Explosiveness
41th
Finishing
54th
Field Pos
100th
Defense
36th
Havoc
79th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-11.7
#117
Offense
-6.2
#114
Defense
+5.4
#119
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 12 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.752.18
Starting field positionown 19.7own 31.1
Available yards40.1%35.8%
Scoring opportunities66.7%81.8%
Points per opportunity2.632.67
Three-and-out rate25.0%36.4%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
72.5%
Expected, given the spots
55.7%
Over expected
+16.8
Fourth down vs peers
-1
Fourth down vs the model
-50
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Sam Houston is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Sam Houston in 2026

by EPA/play distance
ArizonaSP+ +12.6
Off EPA/play +0.185Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1625
Match
99%
KentuckySP+ +8.5
Off EPA/play +0.155Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1476
Match
99%
South FloridaSP+ -3.1
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.146Elo 1679
Match
99%
South AlabamaSP+ -11.4
Off EPA/play +0.140Def EPA/play +0.176Elo 1390
Match
98%
TempleSP+ -4.9
Off EPA/play +0.194Def EPA/play +0.132Elo 1312
Match
98%
San José StateSP+ -12.8
Off EPA/play +0.126Def EPA/play +0.175Elo 1413
Match
98%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2023–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2023: -12.3, #102 of 1332024: -4.3, #82 of 1342025: -30.3, #134 of 1362026: -11.7, #117 of 138
20232026
Now -11.7 · #117 of 138Best -4.3 in 2024Worst -30.3 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-20-0
0%
0.8-0.8
20252-101-7
17%
1.6+0.4
202410-36-2
77%
7.1+2.9
20233-92-6
25%
3.5-0.5
20225-43-2
56%
3.5+1.5
202111-18-0
92%
——
202010-06-0
100%
——
20197-56-3
58%
0.3+6.7
20186-55-4
55%
——
201712-28-1
86%
——

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 3.9-8.1. Wins the Conference USA in 1.6%.

If they finish with…

0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 21-24 to Troy against an expected margin of −20, so +17.4 against the number.

  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 2.9-5.19 of 10 by title odds
1.6%
Wins the Conference USA
4.8%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6Sam Houston at Liberty7.6
  • wk13Sam Houston at Florida International4.2
  • wk11Kennesaw State at Sam Houston3.7
  • wk7Western Kentucky at Sam Houston3.2

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

20%
Bowl eligible
20%
Placed in a bowl
0%
In the playoff
80%
Season over in November

Sam Houston is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • New Orleans Bowl5.1%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl5.0%
  • Hawai'i Bowl4.4%
  • Xbox Bowl2.2%
  • Armed Forces Bowl1.3%
  • Boca Raton Bowl0.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.