#3Josh Rosen

QB·UCLA·2017 20157.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Josh Rosen is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCLA. Josh's 2015 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 485 plays — a developing rate for the QB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2015, Josh has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Rosen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2015

★★★★★

5-Star · Blue chip

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9932
National rank: #11
High school: St. John Bosco
Hometown: Bellflower, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Passing

292/487 Comp/Att3670 Pass yards23 Pass TD11 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

15 Rush yards2 Rush TD37 Carries0.4 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts25 Punt yards25.0 Yards/punt25 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat52
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Arizona (SP+ 5).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsVirginia	W34-16	1.4	28/35	351	3	0	90.1	-1	0	0.56
2	@UNLV	W37-3	-16.2	22/42	223	1	1	45.9	2	0	0.01
3	vsBYU	W24-23	8.7	11/23	106	1	3	5.6	—	—	-0.31
4	@Arizona	W56-30	4.7	19/28	284	2	0	96.0	7	1	0.78
5	vsArizona State	L23-38	10.2	22/40	280	2	1	33.8	-17	0	0.27
7	@Stanford	L35-56	22.8	22/42	326	3	2	45.6	-17	0	0.11
8	vsCalifornia	W40-24	12.1	34/47	399	3	0	86.7	8	0	0.52
9	vsColorado	W35-31	-4.0	19/33	262	1	0	68.2	-15	0	0.41
10	@Oregon State	W41-0	-10.1	22/33	333	2	0	84.8	5	0	0.57
11	vsWashington State	L27-31	4.2	33/57	340	0	0	76.7	70	1	0.28
12	@Utah	W17-9	11.0	15/30	220	1	0	68.4	-7	0	0.34
13	@USC	L21-40	16.8	19/37	227	1	2	40.8	-9	0	0.15
1	vsNebraska	L29-37	11.1	26/40	319	3	2	51.4	-11	0	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.9%

Passing plays

95.6%

Rushing plays

5.6%

Standard downs

45.4%

Passing downs

68.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	UCLA	7.0	0.420	—	218.0
2017	UCLA	7.3	0.440	+0.02	219.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.