#14Jayden Maiava

QB·UNLV·2025 20237.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jayden Maiava is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UNLV. Jayden's 2023 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 386 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jayden Maiava's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

224/353 Comp/Att3085 Pass yards17 Pass TD10 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

277 Rush yards3 Rush TD73 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat68
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.27 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Bryant.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBryant	W44-14	—	4/6	40	0	0	53.9	13	0	1.27
2	@Michigan	L7-35	31.3	5/7	68	0	0	86.3	13	0	0.45
3	vsVanderbilt	W40-37	-12.7	19/33	261	1	1	44.9	29	1	0.48
4	@UTEP	W45-28	-16.2	15/27	190	0	1	48.3	28	0	0.64
5	vsHawai'i	W44-20	-16.4	11/21	142	2	0	82.4	32	0	0.52
7	@Nevada	W45-27	-22.0	19/24	259	2	0	88.5	32	0	0.73
8	vsColorado State	W25-23	-8.9	27/36	353	0	0	59.8	-5	0	0.71
9	@Fresno State	L24-31	2.5	21/35	268	2	2	44.0	7	0	0.44
10	@New Mexico	W56-14	-16.5	13/18	247	3	0	92.5	10	0	0.79
11	vsWyoming	W34-14	-3.6	17/24	232	1	0	81.4	40	2	0.71
12	@Air Force	W31-27	5.9	15/29	339	2	2	44.8	36	0	0.48
13	vsSan José State	L31-37	-3.4	19/29	229	1	0	58.1	9	0	0.30
14	vsBoise State	L20-44	5.9	15/29	166	0	2	11.2	17	0	-0.18
20	vsKansas	L36-49	9.9	24/35	291	3	2	47.8	16	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.1%

Passing plays

81.9%

Rushing plays

11.5%

Standard downs

37.9%

Passing downs

54.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.79
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	UNLV	7.0	0.522	—	220.6
2025	USC	12.6	0.567	+0.04	254.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.