#1Isaac Brown
Isaac Brown is a Committee Back for Louisville. Isaac's 2026 season produced -7.3 total EPA across 31 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Isaac Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2024
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.8869
- National rank
- #526
- High school
- Homestead
- Hometown
- Homestead, FL
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2026 Production
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency0
- Volume66
- Explosiveness6
- Consistency50
- Receiving39
Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- -0.17
- Passing downs
- -0.51
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.32 / -0.29
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.