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Grant Hollier
Grant Hollier

#85Grant Hollier

TE·Georgia State·2025

Grant Hollier is a Red Zone Weapon TE for Georgia State. Grant's 2025 season produced 26.7 total EPA across 32 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.42
    Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.46
    Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Grant Hollier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
21 Receptions288 Rec yards4 Rec TD13.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume15
  • Explosiveness45
  • Consistency71
  • Pass-Down70
Player type
Red Zone Weapon TE

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.82 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.62 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Memphis (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Ty ThompsonTulane0.4200.720.2
Seth GreenMinnesota0.3900.032.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.620−3.62Wk 2 vs Memphis: +3.62 EPA/play2Wk 7 vs App State: +0.41 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Georgia Southern: +0.77 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs South Alabama: +1.18 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Coastal Carolina: +1.19 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Marshall: +1.22 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Troy: +0.20 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Old Dominion: +0.10 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
2vsMemphisL16-387.615252.00523.62
7vsApp StateL20-41-11.422814.01150.41
8@Georgia SouthernL24-41-9.43206.7070.77
9vsSouth AlabamaL31-38-12.722412.01131.18
11@Coastal CarolinaL27-40-15.135819.31251.19
12vsMarshallL18-30-4.56518.51191.22
13@TroyL19-31-4.834013.30230.20
14@Old DominionL10-275.911515.00150.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
5.3%
Passing plays
9.4%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
4.3%
Passing downs
7.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.78
Passing downs
0.90
Pass / Rush EPA
0.83 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.