@ UCF · Wk 3Win prob 11%Model +18.9Schedule & Results
KENNKennesaw StateW31-17✗Wk 3@UCFUCF+18.911%Wk 4vs
NIUNorthern Illinois-8.271%Wk 5vs
ODUOld Dominion+8.230%Wk 7@
JMUJames Madison+18.412%Wk 8@
ARSTArkansas State+6.833%Wk 9vs
CCUCoastal Carolina-6.466%Wk 10@
APPApp State+9.926%Wk 11vs
GASOGeorgia Southern+1.147%Wk 12@
MRSHMarshall+20.99%Wk 13vs
ULLouisiana+4.439%Team Leaders
Cameran BrownPassing443 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Lanear McCrary Jr.Rushing176 yds · 2 TD · 6.3 avg
Rodshaun DorseyReceiving7 rec · 88 yds · 0 TD
Coby OwensTackles8 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Georgia State
All news →Georgia State's front takes away Kennesaw State's Short yardage
Georgia State runs away from North Carolina A&T, 59-10
Roster · 115 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ayden Pereira | QB | SR | 5'11" | 205 | Auburn, NH |
| 8 | Cameran Brown | QB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 12 | Jadon Olafsson | QB | FR | 5'9" | 175 | Tampa, FL |
| 14 | TJ Stanley | QB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Lyons, GA |
| 15 | Gavin Nuckolls | QB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Rocky Face, GA |
| 0 | Dennis Murray Jr. | RB | SO | 5'9" | 170 | Daytona Beach, FL |
| 5 | Lanear McCrary Jr. | RB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Rockmart, GA |
| 20 | Jamal Bing Jr. | RB | JR | 5'8" | 170 | Savannah, GA |
| 21 | Jaylen Poe | RB | JR | 5'10" | 210 | Dallas, GA |
| 22 | Xavier Butler | RB | FR | 5'8" | 180 | Lithonia, GA |
| 24 | Qwantavius Wiggins | RB | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Fairburn, GA |
| 25 | Tayo Ashadele | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Sugar Hill, GA |
| 28 | Savion Hart | RB | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 32 | Ladainnian Martin | RB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Greer, SC |
| 33 | Jason Fisher | RB | JR | 5'8" | 200 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 4 | Kyle Washington | WR | SO | 5'8" | 175 | Hollywood, FL |
| 7 | Owen Dupree | WR | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Dallas, GA |
| 9 | Rodshaun Dorsey | WR | JR | 6'5" | 210 | Andrews, SC |
| 10 | DJ Riles | WR | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Columbus, GA |
| 13 | Derrick Avery Jr. | WR | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 16 | Jaylin Marshall | WR | SR | 5'11" | 170 | Hamilton, GA |
| 17 | Isaiah Stone | WR | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Smyrna, GA |
| 18 | D'Ontae Fulton | WR | FR | 5'11" | 155 | Sylvester, GA |
| 19 | Jamari Miller | WR | FR | 5'9" | 155 | Opelika, AL |
| 38 | Khalil Quinn | WR | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 80 | Ahmed Souare | WR | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Loganville, GA |
| 82 | Zach Stair | WR | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Atlanta, GA |
| 86 | Keron Milton | WR | SO | 5'11" | 165 | — |
| 87 | Austin McGee | WR | SO | 5'8" | 160 | Watkinsville, GA |
| 89 | Amari Powell | WR | SO | 6'4" | 200 | Cairo, GA |
| 6 | Wesley Campbell VI | TE | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Fairburn, GA |
| 11 | Matt Buron | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Bridgewater, MA |
| 44 | Kyle Mullenix | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Woodstock, GA |
| 81 | Avion McBride | TE | SR | 6'5" | 245 | Florence, SC |
| 85 | Grant Hollier | TE | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Woodstock, GA |
| 51 | TJ Whitfield | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Columbus, GA |
| 53 | Malik Jackson | OL | SO | 6'2" | 300 | Atlanta, GA |
| 54 | Tyhler Williams | OL | SR | 6'2" | 315 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 55 | Gage Stanaland | OL | JR | 6'3" | 310 | Tuscola, TX |
| 56 | Deandre Duffus | OL | JR | 6'4" | 330 | Hollywood, FL |
| 57 | Kadorian Benjamin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 320 | Swainsboro, GA |
| 65 | Hunter Britt | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 68 | Peter Diaz | OL | JR | 6'3" | 320 | Easton, PA |
| 70 | Matthew Grow | OL | FR | 6'6" | 305 | Buford, GA |
| 71 | Aidan Andrews | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Griffin, GA |
| 72 | Kelton Smith | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Columbus, GA |
| 73 | Deylin Hasert | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Marshall, MN |
| 74 | Pherleski Martin | OL | FR | 6'4" | 320 | Snellville, GA |
| 75 | Marcus Mascoll | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Snellville, GA |
| 76 | Jordan Brown | OL | SR | 6'4" | 330 | Long Beach, CA |
| 52 | Donovan Funsch | OT | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Perry, GA |
| 58 | Maxwell Robinson | OT | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Derby, KS |
| 66 | Braylin Roberts | OT | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Newnan, GA |
| 77 | James Wilson | OT | JR | 6'6" | 300 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 1 | Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson | DE | SR | 6'4" | 270 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 44 | Freddie Wilson | DE | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Port Orange, FL |
| 49 | Timothy Dailey | DE | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Dallas, GA |
| 58 | Kelze Howard | DE | JR | 6'3" | 260 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 93 | Aaron Moore | DE | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Mobile, AL |
| 95 | Richard Kramer | DE | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Port Saint Lucie, FL |
| 97 | Isaac Tolliver | DE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Cumming, GA |
| 91 | Tyrese Cathey | DL | SO | 6'3" | 275 | Independence, MS |
| 0 | Jonah Reeder | DT | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 52 | Alex Mullings | DT | SO | 6'1" | 285 | Demopolis, AL |
| 59 | Abdul Mohammed | DT | SO | 6'0" | 280 | Lilburn, GA |
| 59 | Gabriel Chigwere | DT | JR | 6'1" | 275 | Milton, GA |
| 88 | Kevin Norwood | DT | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Theodore, AL |
| 90 | Zamar McGee | DT | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Columbus, GA |
| 92 | AJ Vaughns | DT | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Memphis, TN |
| 94 | Eli Richards | DT | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Hoschton, GA |
| 98 | Samuel Chukwurah | DT | JR | 6'2" | 330 | Bellflower, CA |
| 99 | Mandjou Berte | DT | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Snellville, GA |
| 4 | Xavier Esqillion | LB | SR | 6'1" | 250 | Charlotte, NC |
| 9 | Eric Butler Jr. | LB | JR | 6'1" | 230 | Olathe, KS |
| 20 | Coby Owens | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Saltillo, MS |
| 27 | Tyler Moore | LB | FR | 6'0" | 230 | Opelika, AL |
| 28 | Jaden Kelly | LB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Dallas, TX |
| 30 | Ryan Green | LB | SR | 5'10" | 225 | Athens, GA |
| 33 | Zachary Davis | LB | FR | 6'0" | 230 | Homestead, FL |
| 34 | Jaydon Hood | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 35 | Khalid Feliz | LB | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Orlando, FL |
| 43 | Zion Lawson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 240 | Atlanta, GA |
| 45 | Kelan Butler | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Jefferson, GA |
| 46 | Sean Ademokun | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 47 | Chandler Covington | LB | SO | 6'3" | 210 | Loganville, GA |
| 48 | Zach Adams | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Atlanta, GA |
| 55 | Antonio Wesley | LB | SO | 5'9" | 205 | — |
| 11 | Toby Bolton | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Athens, GA |
| 12 | Darius Johnson Jr. | CB | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Watkinsville, GA |
| 12 | Darius Johnson | CB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Watkinsville, GA |
| 18 | Andre Jocelyn | CB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 24 | Malique Harrell | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Saint Petersburg, FL |
| 25 | Monterrius Echols | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Phenix City, AL |
| 26 | Jacorey Walker | CB | JR | 5'9" | 165 | Riverdale, GA |
| 31 | Ry'Sheed Fuller | CB | FR | 5'9" | 155 | Moultrie, GA |
| 32 | Tyson McCrary | CB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Marietta, GA |
| 39 | Cade Dutton | CB | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Folsom, CA |
| 42 | Tylan Smith | CB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | — |
| 3 | Demonte Gaston | S | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Pensacola, FL |
| 7 | Deuce Walker | S | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Salisbury, NC |
| 8 | Deuce Lee | S | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 13 | Donovan Faria | S | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Land O Lakes, FL |
| 15 | Tre Mittman | S | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Durham, NC |
| 16 | Keenan Nelson | S | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 17 | Joseph Holt | S | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Birmingham, AL |
| 21 | Derrick Maxey III | S | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Atlanta, GA |
| 22 | Ty Snead | S | FR | 6'2" | 215 | East Dublin, GA |
| 37 | Josh Owens | S | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Lithonia, GA |
| 38 | Christon Jones | S | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 26 | Balint Vorosmarty | PK | FR | 5'8" | 185 | Roswell, GA |
| 35 | Landon Vargas | PK | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Carrollton, GA |
| 39 | Samer Layous | PK | SO | 5'7" | 155 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 14 | Christian Teeter | P | SR | 6'7" | 220 | Columbia, SC |
| 36 | Braxton Kitchens | LS | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Cartersville, GA |
| 60 | Jackson Tolley | LS | SO | 6'5" | 200 | Mcdonough, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.62#26
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.47 / 0.93
- Power / stuff (off)
- 88.9% / 14.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 16.8%#61
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.7% / 7.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.22#30 | 0.54#18 | 0.88#21 |
| Defense | -0.01#80 | 0.07#58 | 0.21#45 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4086th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0558th
- Offense success rate55%89th
- Defense success rate allowed34%67th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%77th
- Offense success — passing downs53%96th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs42%55th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%77th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.126th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.250th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.839th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.168th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.889th
- Defense line yards allowed2.842nd
- Offense highlight yards1.464th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5559th
- Offense power success0.8267th
- Defense power success allowed0.5078th
- Offense stuff rate0.1277th
- Defense stuff rate0.2882nd
Third down
- Third down conversion52%78th
- Third down distance faced5.491st
- Third down conversion allowed25%86th
- Third down distance forced8.589th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3195th
- Net success rate — second half0.0752nd
Drives
- Points per drive3.074th
- Points per drive allowed1.766th
- Average starting field position3274th
- Opponent starting field position2392nd
- Available yards gained62%79th
- Available yards allowed42%71st
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.062nd
- Points allowed per opportunity2.463rd
- Three-and-out rate20%64th
- Three-and-outs forced20%41st
Roster
- Returning usage29%31st
- Returning EPA13257th
- Team talent composite57423rd
- Recruiting class rank84.039th
- Recruiting class points18439th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.422 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 33.3%
- Expected, given the spots
- 39.9%
- Over expected
- -6.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- +6
- Fourth down vs the model
- -25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Georgia State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Georgia State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 2021 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 60% | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 58% | 5.9 | +1.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 4.4-7.6.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
up 0.0 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 2.9% where the average Sun Belt team is 2.1%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 79% of those.
Georgia State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk7at James Madison0.4
- wk10at App State0.2
- wk8at Arkansas State0.2
- wk13vs Louisiana0.1
- wk12at Marshall0.1
- wk5vs Old Dominion0.1
Who to root for
Games Georgia State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12Eastern Michigan over Western Michigan0.1
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.1
- wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.1
- wk13Temple over Memphis0.1
- wk3Stonehill over Massachusetts0.1
- wk4Delaware over Virginia0.1
Sun Belt
East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 1.9-6.113 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Georgia State can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Georgia State at James Madison2.7
- wk10Georgia State at App State1.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Georgia State is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- 68 Ventures Bowl5.0%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl4.5%
- New Orleans Bowl3.9%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.9%
- Xbox Bowl2.0%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Georgia State a player since 2010 — 24 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Georgia State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.