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Eli Pancol
Eli Pancol

#4Eli Pancol

WR·Duke·2024

Eli Pancol is a Versatile WR for Duke. Eli's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 65 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Eli Pancol's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
60 Receptions798 Rec yards9 Rec TD13.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume23
  • Explosiveness42
  • Consistency84
  • Pass-Down82
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.54 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.13 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Northwestern (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.130−2.13Wk 1 vs Elon: +0.74 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Northwestern: +2.13 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UConn: +1.99 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Middle Tennessee: +1.48 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs North Carolina: +1.14 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Georgia Tech: +1.24 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Florida State: +0.55 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs SMU: +1.32 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Miami: +0.73 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs NC State: +0.62 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: +1.91 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Wake Forest: -0.01 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsElonW26-3—78111.61550.74
2vsNorthwesternW26-20-8.22199.52162.13
3vsUConnW26-211.546115.31361.99
4@Middle TennesseeW45-17-24.422814.00191.48
5vsNorth CarolinaW21-205.034214.00271.14
6@Georgia TechL14-241.956312.61261.24
8vsFlorida StateW23-16-3.22147.00100.55
9vsSMUL27-2817.51113812.51251.32
10@MiamiL31-5321.65367.20100.73
11@NC StateW29-193.955110.20170.62
13vsVirginia TechW31-2810.0518837.63861.91
14@Wake ForestW23-17-5.74205.006-0.01
20vsOle MissL20-5227.955711.4018—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.1%
Passing plays
14.3%
Rushing plays
0.3%
Standard downs
7.6%
Passing downs
9.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.00
Passing downs
1.20
Pass / Rush EPA
1.09 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.