#13E.J. Warner

QB·Rice·2024

E.J. Warner is a Clutch Passer for Rice. E.J.'s 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 407 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So E.J. Warner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

271/438 Comp/Att2710 Pass yards17 Pass TD13 INT61.9% Comp %

Rushing

12 Rush yards1 Rush TD29 Carries0.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency23
Clutch77

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency23th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.58 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs South Florida (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSam Houston	L14-34	-6.9	27/44	227	1	2	17.0	-14	0	0.17
2	vsTexas Southern	W69-7	—	20/30	189	2	1	66.7	8	0	0.25
3	@Houston	L7-33	-8.2	12/21	50	0	1	6.3	-8	0	-0.42
4	@Army	L14-37	9.2	28/43	235	2	2	16.0	3	0	0.03
5	vsCharlotte	L20-21	-15.3	21/39	254	2	0	28.3	24	0	0.08
7	vsUTSA	W29-27	2.2	25/39	347	2	0	71.5	2	1	0.56
8	@Tulane	L10-24	5.7	26/46	271	1	3	39.1	-4	0	0.04
10	vsNavy	W24-10	3.5	28/40	239	1	1	54.7	-6	0	0.15
11	@Memphis	L20-27	9.6	29/45	246	2	0	22.7	-2	0	0.15
13	@UAB	L14-40	-11.3	28/49	222	1	3	15.9	13	0	-0.33
14	vsSouth Florida	W35-28	-2.3	27/42	430	3	0	78.5	-4	0	0.58

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.7%

Passing plays

94.4%

Rushing plays

9.5%

Standard downs

53.4%

Passing downs

78.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / -0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).