#2Blake Shapen

QB·Mississippi State·2025

Blake Shapen is a Clutch Passer for Mississippi State. Blake's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 408 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Blake Shapen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

195/304 Comp/Att2436 Pass yards15 Pass TD8 INT64.1% Comp %

Rushing

26 Rush yards3 Rush TD112 Carries0.2 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts43 Punt yards43.0 Yards/punt43 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat9
Consistency60
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Alcorn State.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Southern Miss	W34-17	-7.1	26/34	270	1	1	57.6	5	0	0.27
2	vsArizona State	W24-20	3.9	19/33	279	3	0	42.0	6	0	0.20
3	vsAlcorn State	W63-0	—	10/14	173	2	1	79.6	12	1	0.64
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W38-10	-16.7	12/20	160	1	0	72.0	51	0	0.45
5	vsTennessee	L34-41	15.0	18/29	180	1	1	22.9	-21	0	-0.16
6	@Texas A&M	L9-31	20.7	15/20	142	1	1	51.2	-36	0	0.07
8	@Florida	L21-23	3.5	24/36	324	0	1	73.8	1	0	0.04
9	vsTexas	L38-45	16.2	26/42	381	4	0	67.4	-39	0	0.28
10	@Arkansas	W38-35	5.1	16/28	242	2	1	72.2	16	0	0.48
11	vsGeorgia	L21-41	24.1	10/15	86	0	0	46.4	15	0	0.03
12	@Missouri	L27-49	14.4	19/33	199	0	2	36.2	16	2	-0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

91.4%

Rushing plays

19.3%

Standard downs

44.2%

Passing downs

68.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.03
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / -0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).