North Dakota State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where North Dakota State gets at New Mexico: 49th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 102nd at keeping everything in front of them. Where New Mexico gets at North Dakota State: 5th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 101st at stuffing runs at the line. New Mexico is also 26th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 74th.
How
NDSUattacks
UNM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 55% this season, 2 games
NDSU1.33#49 of 138UNM1.47#102 of 138
HowUNMattacksNDSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
UNM5.3%#5 of 138NDSU14.6%#101 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
UNM9.0%#26 of 138NDSU15.6%#74 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected · 1 game in
UNM61%#32 of 138NDSU42%#68 of 138
The two teams
North Dakota State
North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. The strengths are defensive, led by 12th at keeping everything in front of them.
North Dakota State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#12 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.75#26 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve17%#34 of 138
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 16% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line5.3%#5 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets1.39#20 of 138
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air15%#25 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1558, NDSU Elo 1574 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -9.7 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NDSU89th4thUNMUNM74th30thNDSUThrough the air
NDSU86th2ndUNMUNM115th15thNDSUOn the ground
NDSU75th16thUNMUNM21st58thNDSUStaying on the field
NDSU73rd6thUNMUNM49th53rdNDSUTaking care of it
NDSU48th1stUNMUNM21st3rdNDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#35) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#41) |
| +3 / -8 | offense / defense | -2 / -9 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 4.11 |
| 0.00 | allowed / drive | 0.78 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. New Mexico?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. New Mexico?
The model projects New Mexico by 9.7.
What time is North Dakota State vs. New Mexico and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM ET, at University Stadium (NM).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →